What realistic improvement for Razorbacks might look like against Tennessee

Arkansas must set modest goals in Knoxville to tighten turnovers, punch the line, compete for four quarters, but don’t expect shockwaves

Arkansas Razorbacks offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino during preseason practices on the outdoor fields in Fayetteville, Ark. | Andy Hodges-allHOGS Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — When the Razorbacks hit the road Oct. 11 to face Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, the goal for Arkansas isn’t glory.

It’s incremental progress. In a season marked by upheaval including the firing of head coach Sam Pittman and sweeping defensive staff changes, the Razorbacks’ path to improvement is narrow.

Given the Volunteers' strengths, expectations must stay grounded.

This isn’t about pulling off an upset (few models favor Arkansas). It’s about steadying the ship, tightening gaps, and showing measurable growth in key areas.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) looks to pass in the first quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Razorback Stadium. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Starting point context isn’t kind

Before discussing what Arkansas can achieve, it’s useful to understand where it stands.

Models generally favor Tennessee heavily. One simulation-based forecast estimates just a 17–18 percent chance that Arkansas wins.

Another FPI-based prediction suggests the Vols will win about 82 percent of simulations. Betting markets are similarly pessimistic about the Razorbacks’ odds.

Tennessee’s offense and capacity to pressure are steep hills to climb. Arkansas’s defensive issues — especially in pass defense and margin of error — are well documented.

Coming off a rough 2–3 start and recent staff changes, the Razorbacks face both internal and external headwinds.

Given that, setting realistic expectations matters more than chasing impossible outcomes.

Here are my four key focus areas for the game:

Memphis Tigers defensive back Kamari Wilson (24) forces a fumble against Arkansas Razorbacks running back Mike Washington Jr. (4) during the second half at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Focus area 1: Turnovers and execution

If the Hogs are going to make any headway, it must protect the ball and avoid self-inflicted damage. Turnovers at bad times have cost Arkansas dearly the last couple of years.

Tennessee, meanwhile, has an opportunistic defense units that has thrived on mistakes.

The Razorbacks can aim to cut out giveaways, avoid pick-sixes, and limit late-game turnovers. Even if they don’t dominate, a clean game (or close to it) would be a step forward.

“We’ve got to do the little things right,” interim head coach Bobby Petrino said this week. “Mistakes kill you against a team like Tennessee.”

Arkansas Razorback running back Braylen Russell (0) runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Focus area 2: Run game and physicality

One of Arkansas’s strengths is its ability to run the ball or at least force defenses to respect it. Or, this year, at least try to do that.

If the offensive line can hold up, and the run game is serviceable, the Hogs may force the Vols to account for both sides of the ball. That can open breathing room.

The Razorbacks probably won’t win the yardage battle consistently, but staying within single-digit rushing differentials or converting more red-zone trips into touchdowns would count as progress.

Even modest gains here can prevent Tennessee from teeing off on play-action or quick strikes.

Arkansas Razorback defensive back Larry Worth III (3) and defensive back Kani Walker (13) react during the second quarter against the Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Focus area 3: Defensive adjustments, not overhauls

Arkansas’s defense will be closely watched, especially in pass coverage and consistency. But the Vols have weapons at receiver and a dynamic offense that will stress the Razorbacks secondary.

Rather than expecting a shutdown performance, the Hogs should aim for fewer explosive plays allowed, more third-down stops, and better edge containment.

Any breakthrough in pass rush or pass breakups counts as success.

One SEC analyst wrote in a preview that “Arkansas will have a dang near impossible time repeating that perfect storm in Knoxville.”

That means improvement will likely be incremental, not dramatic.

Ole Miss Rebels defensive back Sage Ryan (3) tackles Arkansas Razorback wide receiver O’Mega Blake (9) during the third quarter at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Focus area 4: Compete through the fourth quarter

Perhaps the most measurable “soft” metric is maintaining competitiveness into the final quarter.

Too often, Arkansas has allowed games to slip away late. Against Tennessee, even a couple of possessions of momentum in the fourth quarter can shift perception.

Keeping scoring drives alive, avoiding collapse in the fourth, and tightening the final margin (for example, losing by 10–14 rather than 20+) would be tangible improvement over the disaster last week against Notre Dame.

If the Razorbacks can be within reach at game’s end, that’s clearly a step forward.

Arkansas Razorbacks offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino during pregame warmups before game against the Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss. | Ted McClenning-allHOGS Images

Putting it together: What a “good” game looks like

If the Hogs can manage fewer than three turnovers, rush for 100-plus yards, make two or more critical third-down stops, and allow no more than three explosive pass plays, the Razorbacks can legitimately claim a moral victory, regardless of the final scoreboard.

A competitive loss of 10–14 points just might be acceptable, but don't expect Petrino to admit that. He's campaigning to get the interim title taken away from his title. Maybe more importantly, young players and transfers could gain confidence from a game where fundamentals held.

The goal for the Petrino era in these final games probably shouldn't be a “win or go home,” mentality but incremental improveent building toward offseason continuity and recruiting momentum.

Arkansas Razorbacks offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino on the field before game with the Texas Longhorns at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Ted McClenning-Hogs on SI Images

Why this matters beyond one game

Even if Arkansas doesn’t win in Knoxville, a performance showing visible improvement carries benefits:

• It sends a message to recruits and the fan base that the program has resilience.

• It gives momentum to a new interim staff and a baseline for growth.

• It raises expectations internally: next year’s benchmarks shift upward.

Ultimately, the Hogs need more than flashy wins — they need something they can build on for a schedule that could look like walking through a minefield blind.

Key takeaways

• Arkansas should focus on turnovers, run efficiency, red-zone execution, and cutting down explosive plays, not flipping the script overnight.

• A competitive loss in the 10–14 point range would signal positive trajectory.

• Success will show in measurable fundamentals improving in each quarter, especially late game.