A.I. Simulator Suggests Razorback Fans Better Buckle Up for Season Full of Wild Swings
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – We live in a world of artificial intelligence that makes it possible to run computer simulations to do just about anything. So, with not a lot going on Saturday morning, the goal became to see what AI says about the upcoming Razorback football season, and boy were the results interesting.
It turns out computers know as little as everyone else when it comes to the current Arkansas team. No simulations could be found taking into account the newest iteration of the Razorbacks. However, it was possible to take last year's team and run it through this year's schedule which made for a bit of fun since everyone has a clear picture as to how good and bad different aspects of that team actually were.
Surprisingly, Western Carolina, the first opponent on the slate for 2023 was in the system. However, if things go the way the computer predicts, head coach Sam Pittman may not wish they were. The Catamounts went 6-5 last season and gave Georgia Tech a brief scare, but based on AI simulations, it would have been more than a scare had Arkansas met them in Little Rock.
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While the AI says on average Arkansas wins this one by 15 in its 375 possible simulations, the one it predicted is a narrow loss for the Razorbacks. Quarterback KJ Jefferson is a somewhat efficient 13-of-18 for 179 yards and no touchdowns.
The Razorbacks try to play a bit of SEC bully ball, attempting to simply run over their FCS foe. Raheim "Rocket" Sanders puts up 112 yards on 13 carries while Jefferson carries for 77 yards on 17 carries, most of which come on a 29-yard run. It didn't take long for the simulator to pick up on the fact Arkansas struggled in the red zone with an offensive line that wasn't built to exert its power in a sustained way. The Razorbacks put up 244 yards on the ground, but manage only a single touchdown.
Instead, the scoring rests on the leg of Cam Little as drives repeatedly stall, leading to four field goals. It also notes the possibility of a Jefferson injury as Malik Hornsby and Cade Fortin combine for three plays.
It's unclear whether the AI determined Pittman was fired after this game or he simply got everyone's attention after embarrassing themselves in their own Citadel moment, but things turn around dramatically after this. Kent State and BYU fall as expected, although the BYU game is closer than imagined. Jefferson gets his mojo back as the Hogs start relying more on the passing game and the Hogs are off to the races.
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That puts the Razorbacks 2-1 heading into the SEC opener with LSU, a mark so many prognosticators have said Arkansas has to avoid if the Hogs want to have a successful season. However, a solid balanced attack allows the Razorbacks to pull off the upset. The Tigers won 70% of the nearly 900 simulations, but, in true Arkansas-LSU fashion, this one in Baton Rouge is a tight one that goes against the favorite.
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A record of 4-1 as the Hogs head on a revenge trip to Arlington to face Texas A&M is where most think this is headed, just not in the way it played out in the simulation. The game against the Aggies at AT&T Stadium is always the turning point for the season. Win, and the Hogs go on to play in a bowl for a shot at nine or 10 wins like 2021. Lose and it sends them tumbling to 7-6 like last year.
Fortunately for Arkansas, there are no fluke plays to snatch a loss from the jaws of victory. Even though the simulator says the Razorbacks should win this game by an average of 12 points, it never works out that way no matter how bad either team is.
Jefferson puts together a solid game while throwing for nearly 250 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Sanders and A.J. Green combine for 130 yards on the ground in the crucial win to live Arkansas to a promising 5-1 start.
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Arkansas fans are conditioned for things to start falling apart a little bit in this portion of the schedule, but with Ole Miss typically being a 50-50 game, the mental boost from getting past Texas A&M has the Razorbacks rolling with confidence. Playing in Oxford makes it way closer than last season as Jaxon Dart has a better game and Lane Kiffin isn't distracted by trying to negotiate for another job.
The AI ran this game over 700 times with the Razorbacks coming out on top 51% of the time. In the chosen iteration, Jefferson throws for 240 yards and a touchdown, but the game is dominated by the full return of the rushing attack. Sanders runs for 115 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries. Meanwhile, Green, Jefferson and Rashod Dubinion tack only 97 more yards and a touchdown.
Once again, the AI hints Jefferson may be a little banged up, giving Hornsby and Fortin a handful of snaps in a tight ball game.
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Had it not been for the stunning upset to open the season, the Arkansas game in mid-October between a 7-0 Arkansas and an undefeated Alabama may have been a battle to see who claims the No. 1 spot in college football. Unfortunately, it's taken a long time for the Razorbacks to reclaim a little respect and trust, so the luster on this one going in isn't a shiny as it should have been.
However, had Pittman found a way to coax an extra field goal out of Little or converted a field goal into a touchdown, there's little doubt Arkansas would come out of this as the top team in college football. No matter whether it was on the road or at home, the AI was bullish on Arkansas blowing Nick Saban's Crimson Tide off the field.
Originally, there was a mistake. The information entered into the simulator had Arkansas playing at home. Had it not been for the lopsided 41-16 prediction in the Razorbacks' favor, this error might have gone unnoticed. However, when the game was switched to Tuscaloosa, the projection switched to 41-17.
Because there is so much data on Alabama football spread across the internet, the simulation ran 2,337 times, three times as many simulations than when Arkansas was paired with other teams. Still, it managed to land on huge blowouts both times despite Arkansas losing by an average of 10 points across all simulations.
Jefferson proves to be the X-factor. He not only throws 250 yards and a touchdown, he runs 82 yards and two touchdowns. The running game drives the Tide back out to sea as the usual four-headed monster that is the Razorbacks' running game puts up 250 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
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The 6-1 Razorbacks are riding high in the locker room and in the rankings, but it doesn't last long. Mississippi State, typically recognized as a difficult game that is going to require high offensive production in shootout fashion gets slightly overlooked. Also, the wear and tear of playing Alabama accompanied by the emotional drop that follows such a huge win has Arkansas playing sluggish.
Jefferson has a terrible game as both he and his receivers are out of sync, resulting in a 9-of-17 day for 78 yards, placing a lot of pressure on the running game. Sanders and Green combine for a decent day, but Jefferson, fully out of sorts, finds himself struggling to break off runs as his indecisiveness on whether to trust the passing game causes him to be delayed before taking off.
It's a miserable Homecoming in Fayetteville as the hype of a cinderella season comes crashing back to typical October reality for the Razorbacks. The Hogs are still 6-2, which most fans would have given up a season ticket to see happen at this point, but across Arkansas the let-down is so strong they might as well be 3-5.
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Fortunately, the coaching staff was able to convince the team there still something to play for considering Arkansas is still in the driver's seat for a shot at Georgia in the SEC championship game. Pair that realization with an inconsistent Florida team that has rendered fans borderline apathetic and highly frustrated with Billy Napier despite his recruiting classes, and there's hope on the horizon.
The Razorbacks struggle, but manage to pull out their first ever in in the swamp. The simulation ran over 500 times and the results were nearly dead even, making this a coin flip. The coin lands on the Arkansas passing game as a focus on fixing the problems of the previous games' results over the off week sets up Jefferson's biggest passing game of the season with 309 yards and two touchdowns.
Jefferson's passing performance opens up running lanes for Sanders who is able to generate nearly 10 yards per carry. The win and possibility of going to the SEC championship keeps the fan base from turning its full attention to basketball season following a scrimmage between Eric Musselman's Hogs and Top 5 Purdue in Bud Walton the week before.
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All Arkansas has to do is knock off the two worst teams in each division of the SEC and a trip to the SEC championship game for the fourth time in school history and first since 2006 gives the Razorbacks an outside shot at the playoffs.
However, even though the simulations show the Razorbacks should win this 29-23, the AI recognizes Arkansas is gonna Arkansas. Hugh Freeze gets a second signature win by taking down the Hogs in as many years, 17-16 on a last second field goal, propelling Alabama into a national championship game and Arkansas into a pit of despair.
It appears Jefferson tries to play injured, resulting in a poor completion percentage in the passing game and an inability to push through tacklers. Hornsby comes in late and Sanders tries to pick up the slack with 138 yards, but the Hogs aren't able to get the job done offensively.
It should be noted that if this were to happen with this season's roster, both Jacolby Criswell and Malachi Singleton possess dramatically better skills needed to move the offense. If the AI were able to account for them rather than the one-dimensional Hornsby, this game would probably fall in favor of the Razorbacks, moving them one step closer to an outside shot at competing for a national title.
Unfortunately for Arkansas, there is no Criswell or Singleton in this simulation, which means a 7-3 Razorback team, having everything snatched out from under itself and Jefferson limited in practices to give him the best chance to finish out the season, is left with nothing but frustration and anger to take out on an overmatched Florida International team.
The result is truly ugly as Jefferson sets a school record with seven touchdown passes and the running game goes absolutely wild. The result is a 70-3 win over a non-Power Five school that does nothing to make the team feel better.
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Having vented all its frustration while using Florida International as a punching bag, the team has even less interest in Missouri than usual. This is perfect for Eli Drinkwitz who is coaching for his job and has once again had the fortune of catching Arkansas in a bit of turmoil in a game that is a rivalry only to Missouri.
It's another perfect storm that allows the Tigers to once again win a game the simulations say the Razorbacks should win easily, adding to the Bret Bielema-like spiral to end the season.
Jefferson finishes the regular season having thrown for 2,643 yards to go with 493 yards rushing. This means he will need to run right at 150 yards in the bowl game to reach his usual average. As for Sanders, he lead the team with 1,072 yards as the ball was spread more evenly among all the backs.
The Hogs 8-4 record, seen before the season as a positive, is now framed in a different light. A team once bent on finding a way to take down Georgia for the SEC championship to slide into the national playoffs had now fallen all the way to the Texas Bowl where the Razorbacks now face a 9-3 TCU team looking to regain a certain measure of respect after falling off last seasons' national title game run.
With two teams headed in opposite emotional directions, it's a terrible situation for the Hogs. A Razorback team that doesn't want to be there struggles. Jefferson has his worst game of the season with 98 yards passing and 41 yards on the ground.
A season that once had national title aspirations ends as it began – on emotional lows. Pittman's team drops its final three, turning what would otherwise be seen as a successful season into a disappointment heading into the offseason. The good news is the big start helped the Razorbacks gain a bit of ground in recruiting, allowing for a glimmer of hope on the horizon.
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