Five Overrated, Underrated Teams in Preseason College Football AP Top 25

With the Associated Press releasing its preseason college football poll, we see which teams are getting too much and too little credit from the voters.

Lane Kiffin joins LSU with high expectations right off the bat, fielding what is reportedly the most expensive roster in college football. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The AP Top 25 preseason poll is finally here, a clear signal that college football is mere weeks away. Preseason polls are, of course, primarily a way to drum up interest and chatter around the sport as it is set to return. But it also provides important historical framing for the ebbs and flows of a program. The last few years of week-to-week AP polls tell a very good story about Indiana’s furious rise under Curt Cignetti, for example.

Even with the rapidly shifting rosters around the sport, the teams that made last year’s 12-team Collerge Football Playoff field receive a fair amount of respect in this year’s inaugural poll. Indiana, coming off of an incredible 16-0 national championship run, comes in at No. 6—one place above the team it beat in the title game, Miami.

Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 2), Georgia (No. 3), Texas A&M (No. 8), Ole Miss (No. 9), Oklahoma (No. 10), Texas Tech (No. 12), Alabama (No. 13) are all included in the poll, after being CFP teams a year ago. James Madison received three votes, while Tulane got one—both Group of 6 programs from last year’s CFP finishing outside of the preseason Top 25 after coaching changes.

Meanwhile, the teams that finished just outside of the field a year ago—Notre Dame, BYU and Texas—are all here, with the Fighting Irish and Longhorns rounding out the top five.

Of course, these polls are never perfect, and we won’t know exactly how this Top 25 will look until January 25—the very, very late date on which this season’s national championship will be played. After the release of the coaches poll earlier this month, we took a look at the overrated and underrated teams included in that Top 25. As is expected, the AP and coaches polls aren’t particularly far apart. Without repeating any of the teams included in that story, let’s take a look at those that the AP voters may have gotten wrong.

Underrated: No. 11 LSU

When Lane Kiffin took over Ole Miss in 2020, rebuilds were still a very different process. Yes, players would soon be able to legally cash in on their name, image and likeness and new transfer portal rules meant teams would look drastically different from year-to-year, a combination of changes to college sports that have drastically altered the landscape.

But even just a handful of years ago, the sport looked much different than it does in 2026. In many ways, it appears to have leveled the playing field, at least among the moneyed programs—see: national champion Indiana. Kiffin, however, is still betting that the inherent advantages of LSU, the sole powerhouse in a football-crazed state that produces a ton of talent, makes its ceiling meaningfully higher than his last job with the Rebels.

He may prove that right very quickly. After signing Kiffin to an eye-popping seven-year, $84 million contract, the Tigers followed it up by fielding what is reportedly the most expensive roster in college football—one that CBS Sports projects at upwards of $50 million.

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LSU’s various stakeholders aren’t spending that sort of money for the program to slowly build itself back to national title contention. Kiffin is charged with competing out of the gate, and to his credit, he may have the roster to do it. Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt has experience defying expectations in the CFP and should be one of the best quarterbacks in the country if healthy. Ex-Colorado offensive tackle Jordan Seaton may be the most expensive addition to the roster and is expected to produce at an elite level. Kiffin also brought over linebacker Princewill Umanmielen from Ole Miss, after a nine-sack season in 2025.

Kiffin built a roster that went to the College Football Playoff semifinal a year ago and was four points shy of competing for a national championship. He may have abdicated his duties ahead of the postseason run, but he knows what that kind of team looks like, and with the help of LSU’s deep pockets, he may have just microwaved another one.

Sam Leavitt was one of the nation’s most exciting quarterbacks at Arizona State, and Lane Kiffin is betting that he can lead a second team to the College Football Playoff. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Overrated: No. 18 Penn State

For the Nittany Lions, No. 18 is on the low-end of typically expectations. A year ago, Penn State entered the season No. 2 and was expected to compete for a national title, prognostications that may have helped doom James Franklin—who was fired mid-season after stunning back-to-back losses to UCLA and Northwestern.

After an arduous coaching search, the Nittany Lions landed a steady hand in former Iowa State coach Matt Campbell. A No. 18 preseason ranking is among the highest for a Campbell-led team, though Penn State certainly has a higher ceiling than the Cyclones, and the hope is that a coach who overachieved at Iowa State will be able to avoid some of the pratfalls that Franklin suffered.

That may prove true down the line, but after a lengthy search, Campbell had to patch together a new-look roster, with 40 total incoming transfers—24 of whom come from Iowa State including quarterback Rocco Becht. It gives Campbell a solid base of players he knows and trusts, but also may limit the Nittany Lions’ immediate ceiling. The 2025 Cyclones were a solid 8-4 Big 12 squad, but finished the year unranked. Campbell’s first Penn State team may be a step above them, but the adjustment to the Big Ten could be a significant one.

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If Campbell’s squad finishes the year around where it started in the rankings, Nittany Lions fans should probably take it as a year one win. There’s also a fair chance that the program suffers through some real growing pains that make this ranking quite optimistic.

Former Iowa State coach Matt Campbell faces significantly higher expectations at Penn State. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Underrated: No. 14 BYU

The Cougars finished last season at No. 11 in the country with a 12-2 record, and narrowly missed the College Football Playoff due to a pair of losses to Big 12 champion Texas Tech.

After a push from Penn State, BYU retained coach Kalani Sitake, who has led the program to a 23-4 record over the last two seasons. The program brings back quarterback Bear Bachmeier—an impressive dual-threat weapon as a freshman a year ago who accounted for over 3,500 total yards and 26 touchdowns as a passer and runner. LJ Martin (1,305 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns in 2025) is one of the Big 12’s most accomplished rushers. The offensive line has a solid amount of experience.

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Defensively, BYU ranks sixth in the nation in returning production per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, from a unit that ranked 22nd in Connelly’s SP+ metric to end the 2025 season.

This was one of college football’s most balanced teams a year ago and projects to be similar, with more experience and a potential leap from an already solid offense if Bachmeier takes a meaningful step forward in year two. On paper, this looks like a significant playoff threat, and No. 14 definitely feels low to start the fall.

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier was the Big 12’s offensive freshman of the year and MVP of last season’s Pop-Tarts Bowl. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Overrated: No. 22 Iowa

The Hawkeyes’ defense will be good. That much is virtually guaranteed under coach Kirk Ferentz and longtime defensive coordinator Phil Parker.

The Iowa offense, however, has ranged from mediocre to truly horrible over the last few years. Last year’s unit was quietly solid, finishing 37th in SP+ and 54th in points per game. It took a while for quarterback Mark Gronowski, a South Dakota State transfer, to get his footing in FBS, but once he did, he proved to be a dangerous dual-threat player, even if the Hawkeyes’ passing attack never quite got off the ground.

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Gronowski was a one-and-done player in Iowa City, though, and Ferentz opted to let a quarterback battle play out between his two backups, Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown. Whomever starts under center for the Hawkeyes will be very inexperienced, and won’t be alone in it; ESPN has Iowa ranked 104th in returning production. What’s more, the network’s David Hale calculates that Iowa’s roster enters the year with the fewest career FBS/FCS snaps of any Power 4 program, 18,781. No other team in the Power 4 returns fewer than 23,000 Division I snaps.

Ferentz is a fair bet to get the most out of his team, though how high that ceiling is in 2026 is anyone’s guess.

Kirk Ferentz, the longest-tenured coach in FBS, enters the year with one of the Power 4’s most inexperienced rosters. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Underrated: Virginia (not ranked)

One of the surprising breakout teams of the 2025 season, the Cavaliers were a rough overtime ACC championship loss to Duke from heading to the CFP. Even so, they rebounded to beat Missouri in a bowl game and finish 11-3, a tremendous accomplishment for embattled coach Tony Elliott, who now finds himself on very firm ground entering 2026.

Virginia continued the portal-heavy recruiting strategy that helped it turn things around in 2025, and after a veteran-laden Indiana squad won it all last season, the Cavaliers seem to be following a solid playbook. Per Hale’s calculations, Virginia is the inverse of Iowa, with 48,313 snaps played—most of any Power 4 program.

The program has plenty of question marks. Beau Pribula is a talented replacement for Chandler Morris under center, but plays a completely different style of ball as a bruising, dual-threat quarterback. He missed the end of last season for Missouri after a promising start. Virginia’s offensive skill positions are largely other new faces, so offensive coordinator Des Kitchings certainly has his work cut out for him.

There’s a chance the transfers don’t wind up jelling the same way in 2026 that they did in ’25. Elliott’s successful fourth season could prove to have been a blip in a run that has otherwise been a struggle. But even if some of last year’s close results turn the wrong way, like the Cavaliers’ three overtime wins, this squad should have the talent and experience to post another strong season. Virginia should be closer to a fringe Top 25 team entering the season, not a squad receiving just one vote: the same number as in-state foe Liberty, which went 4–8 playing a Conference USA schedule a year ago.

The 2025 season was a breakthrough for Tony Elliott, who led Virginia to an 11–3 record after three losing campaigns to begin his tenure in Charlottesville. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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