Preseason AP Poll Winners and Losers: Sky-High Expectations for Oregon and Indiana

Meanwhile, a muted start for Alabama and Michigan.

Dante Moore and Oregon have a national championship run in their sights in 2026. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Our long national nightmare—the college football offseason—is almost over, and the release of the preseason AP Poll is our surest sign.

It is a rite that has signaled the start of autumn for decades, through every kind of postseason setup imaginable—the old bowl system, the Bowl Coalition, the Bowl Alliance, the BCS and the CFP. Even when it doesn’t mean anything, technically speaking, it still goes a long way toward shaping public perception of the nation’s best teams.

So relax. Breathe in, breathe out, even if your team’s ranking disappoints you. Put on a little Explosions in the Sky, light a pumpkin-scented candle. Next exit: home.

Here are three winners and three losers from Monday’s first top 25 of the year.

Winner: Oregon

The Ducks have been playing football for more than a century, and never in the 90-year history of the AP Poll have they clocked in at No. 2 or better in a preseason poll. They’ve entered the fall at No. 3 on four occasions—first in 2011, last in 2024—but never No. 2. Quarterback Dante Moore & Co. have done just that, with 14 first-place votes to boot. Oregon’s mission, to its fans and media alike, is clear: Coach Dan Lanning must lead his team from excellence to transcendence by playing for a national championship.

Loser: Alabama

Ever so gradually, the Crimson Tide have been slipping down the preseason ladder in recent years—from No. 1 in 2022 to No. 4 in 2023 to No. 5 in ’24 to No. 8 last year. A No. 13 start, though, is alarming for a program that hasn’t opened a season outside the top 10 since George W. Bush was president. Kalen DeBoer is a good coach who knows his way out of a quarterback jam, but Alabama will need more than competent play at that position to erase the stench of its 38–3 Rose Bowl loss to Indiana.

Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama program opens the year at No. 13 in the AP poll, a clear sign of how the Crimson Tide have fallen off in recent years. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Winner: Indiana

Speaking of coach Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers, they join the Ducks as the second of two teams making their highest debuts in poll history. It’s both a surprise and not: Indiana lost a Heisman-winning quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, but the voters clearly trust Cignetti on the heels of one of sports’ truly great coaching jobs. The fact that the Hoosiers, earners of eight first-place votes, sit behind Georgia (no first-place votes) and Texas (ditto) show that trust isn’t complete, however. Nonetheless, it’s a good place to start.

Loser: Michigan

The Crimson Tide are one of two teams slapped with their lowest preseason ranking in five or more seasons; the Wolverines are the other. The last time Michigan entered a season this low: 2021, when a 2-4 showing in 2020 motivated the Wolverines into a 12-2 campaign and their first win over Ohio State in a decade. This ranking reflects the extent to which Michigan is an unknown quantity—coach Kyle Whittingham has never led a program not named Utah, and what will offensive coordinator Jason Beck do with quarterback Bryce Underwood? We’ll find out no later than Sept. 12, when Oklahoma visits.

Sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood hopes to take a significant leap after an up-and-down freshman campaign at Michigan. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Winner: BYU

Coach Kalani Sitake has molded the Cougars into such a capable program that you might not have noticed them at No. 14, but there they are. That is the highest BYU has opened a season since 1985, a fairly wild statement given that the Cougars have ended six seasons since at No. 14 or better. The voters seem determined: BYU won’t catch them flat-footed this year after winning 10 games from an unranked start in back-to-back seasons. Arizona, fourth in the Others Receiving Votes section, gives quarterback Bear Bachmeier an early (Sept. 12) opportunity to prove his mettle.

Loser: Clemson

No team in the Others Receiving Votes section—not SEC squads like Florida, South Carolina or Vanderbilt; not sleepers like Oklahoma State, New Mexico or California—jumps out like the Tigers, who haven’t started a season unranked since 2011 (their initial breakthrough under coach Dabo Swinney). Clemson started No. 4 last year before losing its opener to LSU and nosediving to 7–6. The 2010s have never seemed farther away—and that’s before a make-or-break five-week stretch to open the season that includes visits to LSU and the Golden Bears, followed by a home date with Miami.

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