Hogs' Goal This Year Has to be Road Wins

Arkansas has been downright atrocious when playing in an opponent's stadium

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Aug 23, 2023 9:13 AM EDT
Original:
Aug 23, 2023

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Thanks to a neutral site game against Texas A&M in Arlington, the Razorbacks don't play just a ton of games on the road, especially since nearly every non-conference game over the past few decades has been in Arkansas.

However, when Arkansas does actually go into another team's house, especially if it's an SEC team, it's easy money to bet the Hogs are coming away with a loss. Since Pittman took over, the Razorbacks have actually improved to an average of one road win per season.

It's been nearly a decade since Arkansas won more than one SEC game. The 2015 season that included the 4th & 25 overtime win, 53-52, against Ole Miss was the last time the Razorbacks did it. That year the Bret Bielema coached Hogs with Dan Enos calling plays and Pittman coaching the offensive line not only took down the Rebels in Oxford, but also knocked off LSU and Tennessee on the road. Had it not been for a pair of non-conference losses, including a shocker to Toledo in Little Rock, it would have been a 10-win season.

The only time Arkansas has won two games on the road since came last year when the Hogs went into Provo and came away with a 52-35 win over BYU and then went to Auburn to take out a Tigers' team that had simply given up, 41-27. The only other road wins for the Razorbacks over the past five seasons include a 16-13 overtime win against LSU in 2021 and a 21-14 win over Mississippi State in 2020.

Arkansas' four wins trail Vanderbilt's five for worst in the SEC over the past five years, but a couple of victories this year could be enough to get out of the cellar. So, let's see which games give Sam Pittman's men the best chance at victory. This year's true road games are as follows:

Sept. 23 @LSU
Win probability: Higher than people think.

Oct. 7 @Ole Miss
Win probability: Coin flip. Maybe slightly better since the Rebels play Alabama and LSU before Arkansas. We'll have to see if KJ Jefferson is still able to play at this point in the season. This is usually the weekend of the first game he misses or is hampered by injury.

Oct. 14 @Alabama
Win probability: Pretty much zero, which means there's still technically a chance. Maybe Saban retires early.

Nov. 4 @Florida
Win probability: Odds are fairly high if Arkansas is still healthy. This is the lone home game in roughly a two-month stretch and it will be a blackout game, so the locals should be geared up for this one. The question is whether the actual players are still geared up at this point or just looking to see the season end.

With no road games snuck into a highly watered down non-conference schedule, the multiple road wins have to come in SEC play. There's nearly two decades of history that says a win over Alabama isn't going to happen. However, all three of the other games are possibilities if Arkansas can stay healthy and the weakest player in the secondary turns out to be at least an average player.

Of the three, Ole Miss is by far the best bet. Pittman has done well against the fighting Kiffins. He's 2-1 and the lone loss came in the college football game of the year when the Hogs scored two of the three touchdowns posted in the final 1:22 and were a failed 2-point conversion away from coming out on top in what turned out to be a 52-51 loss in regulation.

As for Florida, no one knows what to expect. Coaches across the game seem to respect Billy Napier a great deal more than Florida fans. If he loses to Arkansas, chances are he's in the midst of a season that gets him fired, making it the most coveted job in America because of recent recruiting success unless Texas A&M finally decides to pull the trigger on a vastly overpaid Jimbo Fisher.

That leaves Florida. Not many will give the Hogs a chance, but there's something about Arkansas that always seems to vex LSU even in the best of times. If Brian Kelly could barely beat the worst secondary in all of college football while also being gifted the chance to face the Razorbacks with one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the game, it's not going to be easier this year. Unless this game is played at 11 a.m., it's probably going to be close, and no one should ever count out Jefferson and Raheim "Rocket" Sanders in a close game despite last year's record.

So, will Pittman get his first 2+ SEC road win season ever? Flip a coin and then let everyone else know how it turned out.