Receiving Numbers in Graphic Provide Razorback Fans False Hope
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – This is why we can't trust the general public with numbers.
Tuesday evening, a rather well done graphic by 247 Sports spread across social media featuring the Arkansas wide receivers. As the Twitter handle indicates, these numbers were presented in a vacuum with no context through which to view them.
One user retweeted the post with "Is this good?" Again, fittingly, without context. It's hard to tell whether this was posed in the sarcastic, is anyone too stupid to see how awesome this is manner, or if it's someone who understood the context to an extent genuinely asking if these numbers translate to a good receiving corp.
Regardless of how the response was intended, there were Razorback fans who simply saw numbers and decided it didn't matter how they were achieved.
"I think the most talented WR room top to bottom since Adams, Wright, Hamilton and Childs," one person responded.
However, others were able to see the numbers with at least a little skepticism.
"Considering one of the dudes was on the roster last year (the one with 2 receptions) no. Absolutely not."
While it goes a little deeper than the only player from the roster last season, Isaiah Sategna, only having two catches, at least there is an attempt to see the numbers for what they mean. Pretty much nothing.
Never has there been a graphic so full of statistical data that offers so little to extrapolate toward future results. The weakest looking stat of the bunch might be the strongest. It was earned by Sategna while practicing against SEC defenders for a full season. Yes, what Arkansas put out last year barely qualifies as an SEC defense, but those were Division I athletes nonetheless.
They also came in games against Auburn and Kansas. That's not exactly Alabama and Georgia, but it's also not against Beggs and Lane like the numbers Isaac TeSlaa put up. Of course, to further point out how little value the 1,325 yards TeSlaa put up have, Beggs and Lane aren't football teams. They're a law firm in Florida. TeSlaa's yards came against Tiffin and Findlay. Of course, readers will plug those two into Google just to make sure they haven't had the wool pulled over their eyes again, which is exactly the point.
TeSlaa's stats at Hillsdale came against Division II schools. For those who lack context for Division II, think Arkansas-Pine Bluff of Central Arkansas and then drop down a full division to a land of partial scholarships. Try to picture the Henderson St. Reddies or Arkansas-Monticello Boll Weevils trying to score against Arkansas. That success is where TeSlaa enters on this roster.
Texas A&M-Commerce transfer Andrew Armstrong only competed against an FCS schedule for one season after the Lions made the jump in 2022. However, it should be noted that a quarter of his receiving yards and more than half of his touchdowns came against Division II Lincoln University (Calif.) and even lower division North American University of the NAIA.
When it came time to put up big numbers against FCS competition, Armstrong's average dropped by 42 yards per game and he went from 3.5 touchdowns per game to .67. That's a significant drop by going up a level. Moving up to FBS and then to the SEC is like going up two levels. If yards go down 36% with each level, then the best Arkansas fans can hope for is 35 yards per game and maybe one, at most two touchdowns this season.
Then again, that's how numbers work, but it's not how life works. There's no way to know whether that production will be even less against SEC defenses or better after practicing against tougher competition, getting better coaching and physical improvements from time working with Ben Sowders. That just lends further to how little value this graphic provides.
The only other player with experience against FBS schools outside of Sategna is Tyrone Broden. The Bowling Green transfer grabbed four receptions for a total of 44 yards and one touchdown against Mississippi State and UCLA. His remaining 462 yards came against FCS schools. However, it's much higher level experience than the other two lower level receivers.
That's why this graphic is so deceptive. It looks nice for fans to see those big numbers flash across the screen with a Razorback logo associated with it, but it's not only hollow, it's a reason for concern. There's not one proven player in the bunch. They will all have chips on their shoulders, which is good, but a desire to prove oneself is no substitute for extensive experience against the best defenders college football has to offer.
The good news for head coach Sam Pittman is he has a few weeks of soft schedule to break these receivers in and figure out who can actually put up numbers against FBS programs. The best looking pass catcher in the limited time the media was allowed to watch this past spring was freshman tight end Luke Hasz. However, he still has a bit of growing to do before Dan Enos is willing to put him out there with quarterback KJ Jefferson's health on the line, so at least two of the four players on that graphic will need to step up and provide numbers that have actual meaning.
If not them, then Bryce Stephens, Jaedon Wilson, Sam Mbake or one of the freshmen will need to step up because, without a strong passing game, the running game isn't going anywhere. That's because receiving numbers matter a great deal.
Just not the ones in that graphic.
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