Arkansas Looks To Stay Hot as LSU Brings Urgency to Fayetteville

Winter in Fayetteville doesn't ask permission, it just shows up, prompting a wild rush on every stray container of milk or bread in the storys.

It just rolls in sideways, drops snow on the Ozarks and dares you to stay home. That’s what’s expected Saturday around Bud Walton Arena, where No. 20 Arkansas will try to keep their shooting touch warm while the weather outside does its best impression of a snow globe.

Arkansas comes into the weekend feeling pretty good about itself, and not in a chest-thumping way. More like the quiet confidence of a team that finally saw all the moving parts click at the same time.

Tuesday’s blowout win over No. 15 Vanderbilt wasn’t subtle. It was efficient, balanced, and downright rude. The Hogs shot 57.8% from the field, knocked down 40.9% of their threes, and had six players reach double figures.

That’s not just a good night. That’s a spreadsheet some coaches would frame and hang in his office.

Now comes LSU, which has had a season that feels like it’s constantly stepping on yard rakes. The Tigers are 1-5 in SEC play, fresh off a loss to Florida, and already hearing the uncomfortable whispers that come with January basketball in Baton Rouge.

The athletic director didn’t exactly whisper either. He said plainly that coach Matt McMahon needs to make the NCAA Tournament.

Louisiana State Tigers coach Matt McMahon reacts during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Reed Arena in College Station, Texas. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

That’s not motivational poster language. That’s more like a sticky note slapped on the fridge that says, “We need to talk.”

The Tigers’ SEC luck hasn’t exactly been generous. They’re still probably replaying that Kentucky game in their heads, the one where they led by as many as 18 points and held the advantage for more than 35 minutes.

Then Malachi Moreno hit a buzzer-beater, and LSU learned yet again that leads don’t count until the horn sounds. That one hurt, not just because of the loss, but because it felt like a summary of how the season has gone.

Last year’s series between Arkansas and LSU followed a familiar script. The Tigers protected home court in Baton Rouge early.

Then the Razorbacks turned the corner, figured themselves out, and took care of business in Fayetteville. Saturday offers a chance to see whether history feels like repeating itself or rewriting.

LSU’s roster has had its own share of turbulence. Jalen Reed was lost for the season early after tearing his Achilles against Drake.

Before that, he was giving the Tigers 9.5 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, production that doesn’t magically reappear once conference play starts. You can scheme around a lot of things, but you can’t scheme around missing a body.

One potential boost came Tuesday, when Dedan Thomas Jr. returned after missing five games with a lower-body injury. He came off the bench against Florida, played 17 minutes, and looked like a guy shaking off rust.

Two points, three assists, two rebounds. Nothing flashy. Still, his presence matters. The last time he played before the injury, he dropped 22 points and handed out 12 assists against Southern Miss. That version of Thomas changes how LSU operates.

He’s also the kind of guard Arkansas can’t afford to ignore. Thomas averages 15.1 points and 6.8 assists per game, and he does it without hemorrhaging possessions.

A usage rate near 25% with just 1.6 turnovers per game is respectable, especially on a team that hasn’t had many things go smoothly. How McMahon uses him coming off injury could tell you a lot about how desperate the Tigers feel.

Louisiana State Tigers guard Max MacKinnon (3) drives to the basket past Florida Gators forward Thomas Haugh (10) during the first half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Max Mackinnon remains LSU’s most consistent scoring option. The Australian transfer from Portland leads the team at 14.6 points per game and shoots 43% from three.

If the Tigers are going to hang around, he’ll need to make Arkansas uncomfortable from the perimeter.

Inside, Mike Nwoko has been a steady presence. The Mississippi State transfer starts every game and leads the SEC in field goal percentage at 67.9%. He doesn’t waste touches.

Marquel Sutton and Pablo Tamba handle a lot of the dirty work too. Both are fifth-year seniors with JUCO backgrounds, both start, and both know where their points come from.

Sutton lives mostly inside the arc, while Tamba isn’t a volume shooter from deep but has shown he can hit timely threes.

KenPom paints LSU as a team that’s better than its record but not by a mile. The Tigers rank 42nd nationally in adjusted efficiency, with a top-40 offense and a defense sitting around 75th.

They play at a deliberate pace, ranking 207th in tempo, and they’re one of the unluckiest teams in the country according to KenPom’s luck metric.

That stat measures the gap between expected wins and actual wins, and LSU’s gap is wide.

Context matters, though. The Tigers’ non-conference schedule didn’t exactly prepare them for SEC nights.

Texas Tech was the only Top 100 KenPom opponent they faced, and that one ended in an 82-58 loss. They also needed overtime to beat Boston College, which didn’t exactly inspire fear.

Those games padded some numbers that have deflated once league play started.

LSU averages 83.3 points per game overall but hasn’t scored more than 80 in conference play. Defensively, the Tigers give up 72.8 points per game overall, but SEC opponents are pushing that to 76.8.

The shooting defense remains solid, with opponents hitting just 41.3%, and LSU forces 10.5 turnovers per game. The weak spot? Three-point defense, where the Tigers rank 12th in the SEC.

That’s awkward timing, considering Arkansas leads the league in three-point shooting. The Razorbacks don’t need to play fast or fancy if the shots keep falling.

They just need to stay disciplined, especially if Thomas looks more like himself.

Snow may pile up outside Bud Walton Arena, but inside, the math is pretty simple.

Arkansas has momentum, balance, and a style that travels well even when the roads don’t. LSU has urgency, some talent, and a season that feels like it’s running out of runway.

One team wants to keep the heater running. The other just wants to stop the leak.

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