Portal Choices Will Clearly Tell Where Next Hogs Team Will Finish

It's the first day of the college basketball transfer portal, which will provide the first glimpse as to whether next season is going to be a run at a national championship for the Arkansas Razorbacks or if it will be another year focused on adding to John Calipari's growing list of first round NBA draft picks.

Of course, the easiest way to tell is to evaluate the quality and diversity of big men he picks up in the portal. If he lands an elite paint filler who can move people around offensively for easy buckets, recognize open high percentage three& point shooters to kick it back out to and also play strong defense with a love of rebounding, that will be a step in the right direction.

Should he also add a guy who is around 6-foot-8, a little thick in the backside with athleticism and a nasty attitude on both sides of the ball and relentless rebounding skills who can muscle his way past bigger players like Adama Sonogo of UConn a few years ago or Corliss Williamson from Nolan Richardson's national championship team at Arkansas now 32 years past, the roster will reflect an effort at quality complementary construction.

Fans will know the focus is building a championship contender. The other way is to count the number of legitimate NBA draft prospects on the team.

Calipari only has one national championship to his credit, although it should be noted most college coaches never even reach that career milestone, so it's not to be looked down upon. The title came in 2012 when Kentucky cut down the nets in his third season in Lexington with the help of seven future NBA players

Six of those players were drafted, including three in the first round. Of those first rounders, Anthony Davis went No. 1 and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist went No. 2. That's the level of talent it takes to win a national championship the typical Calipari NBA draft driven way.

When Calipari took Kentucky back to the FInal Four in 2014 where they ultimately ended up being the national runner-up, he again had seven NBA players. The following 2015 team went to the Final Four also with nine NBA players, including the likes of Karl-Anthony Townes, WIlly Cauley-Stein, Tyler Ulis, and Devin Booker, which means he had the overall No. 1 draft pick in Townes and the No. 6 pick in Cauley-Stein.

If Calapari sticks to his NBA Draft mode, which history shows is always going to be the case, he needs seven to nine NBA players on his roster to be competitive. Right now, unless something changes dramatically over the next few weeks, that's not going to happen.

With the three incoming freshman and Billy Richmond, assuming he returns, the Hogs have most likely three NBA players as one of those four is not likely to pan out in regard to the NBA, although it remains to be seen which.

That means others need to be developed.

Freshman Isaiah Sealy didn't show the type of development throughout his freshman year that, for example, Jaylin Williams demonstrated under Eric Musselman while learning alongside Justin Smith. As a result, it's hard to see him growing into an NBA level player this year, which greatly decreases his odds of reaching that goal while at Arkansas. As for Malique Ewin, he has the ability to reach that level if the coaches have the patience and skills to pull it out of him.

He progressed a great deal offensively this past season, but he needs to make huge strides on defense and become a Hungry, Hungry Hippo when it comes to rebounding, especially on the offensive end. Ewin's points per game need to become more consistent based on his ability to put up second chance points.

So, assuming Ewin can grow into that type of player, Calipari needs to find at least three more NBA quality players to be able to compete for at least the Final Four. There's a chance the Hogs can reel in 5-star small forward Tyran Stokes, who is currently the top player in the 2026 class according to ESPN, so should Calipari land him, he only needs to find two NBA level guys in the portal, preferably in the backcourt.

However, that can be very pricey. The Tyson Chicken money isn't unlimited and the price of doing business goes up a lot each year without some way to keep college salaries in check.

Some of these guys will probably take a pay cut going to the NBA. As a result, the odds are low Calipari gets the roster he needs to bring Arkansas a national championship, no matter how much players may want it.

Traditional roster building with one, at most two 5-stars, backed by several 4-stars who get coached up to 5-star status on a complementary roster isn't Calapari's style. Landing the extreme number of NBA ready players needed to get to the Final Four using Calapari's approach is going to be hard to pull off, especially when paying players is an option for everyone and it's very expensive.

So, unless something big happens over the next few weeks, this will be another Sweet 16, maybe Elite 8 level with the right draw, NBA Draft friendly Arkansas team .

It may begin to frustrate Razorbacks fans if it plays out that way, but Calipari will have added to his NBA first round draft list, so ultimately, the Hogs head coach will be quite proud of the result either way.

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