Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4, Wemby, SGA)

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are facing the most adversity they’ve had in the 2026 NBA Playoffs, as they trail 2-1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals.

After San Antonio stole Game 1 in double overtime, Oklahoma City has bounced back with two wins in a row, including a double-digit win on the road as underdogs in Game 3. Now, the Thunder have a chance to completely take control of the series in Game 4 before heading home to Paycom Center in Game 5.

The Thunder bench as dominated back-to-back games, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has figured things out after a rough start to the series, shooting 7-for-23 in Game 1.

So, who has the edge in Game 4? Oddsmakers have set the Spurs as 1.5-point favorites for the second game in a rwo, but San Antonio was outscored by 30 in Game 3 after starting the game on a 15-0 run. So, are the Thunder undervalued in just their sixth game this season as an underdog?

In Game 4, I have three plays, including a little parlay for two of the Spurs’ top players.

Let’s take a look at the odds and analysis behind each of these picks for a potential swing game in the Western Conference Finals.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 309-265 (-3.96 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1600-1501-27 (+29.18 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 (-108) vs. San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama-Devin Vassell Scoring Parlay (-147)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 7.5 Assists (-125)

Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 (-108) vs. San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City has been an underdog just six times (including Game 4) this season, but this is only the second time they’ve been set as an underdog with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup.

I’m buying OKC to cover – and likely win outright in Game 4 – as it has way more depth than a Spurs team that simply cannot survive when Wemby is off the floor.

The Spurs are minus-37 in backup center Luke Kornet’s minutes in this series, and the Spurs’ lack of offensive options with De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper clearly at less than 100 percent was a glaring issue in Game 3.

The defending champs are now 3-2 against the spread as underdogs in the 2025-26 season, and they outscored the Spurs by 30 points after falling in a 15-0 hole on Friday night. There’s something to be said for OKC’s depth and championship pedigree, and the Spurs’ inexperience, especially on offense, has led to a ton of turnovers in this series.

OKC is nearly impossible to beat when it can win the turnover and transition battle, and it’s pretty clear that this series is wearing on the Spurs as a whole. I’m going to trust the Thunder to send this series back home with a 3-1 lead.

Victor Wembanyama-Devin Vassell Scoring Parlay (-147)

Victor Wembanyama 20+ Points
Devin Vassell 12+ Points

The Spurs need as much scoring as they can get from these two starters with De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper at less than 100 percent, and I don’t mind moving these lines down on Sunday to get a parlay at -147.

Victor Wembanyama

Wemby has scored 21 or more points in every game in this series, taking 25, 16 and 15 shots in the process.

I think he may be even more agressive in Game 4, as the Spurs cannot afford a 3-1 series deficit against this OKC team. The Thunder don’t have a real one-on-one answer for Wembanyama, and he’s been efficient in this matchup, shooting 50.0 percent or better from the field in every game.

It would likely take a blowout – or an injury – for the Spurs star to fall short of this number in Game 4.

Devin Vassell

Devin Vassell has really stepped up in this series, scoring 13, 22 and 20 points in three games. He’s shooting 42.9 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from 3 in the playoffs, but Vassell’s usage was up in Game 3 with Fox and Harper banged up.

The former lottery pick has 12 or more points in nine of 14 playoff games this season, and he’s scored at least 10 points in every game. That gives him a really solid floor, and I think he gets to 12 or more points for the fourth game in a row this series.

Vassell has at least 12 shot attempts in every game against OKC.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 7.5 Assists (-125)

SGA is averaging 14.6 potential assists per game in the 2026 postseason, and he’s been a willing passer in this series against San Antonio.

Through three games, the two-time MVP has 12, nine and 12 assists, picking up eight or more in eight of his last 10 playoff games. He’s seeing a ton of double teams from San Antonio, and the Thunder have stepped up with players like Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams and several others making big shots off the bench.

This is the second straight series that has required SGA to be a passer first and a scorer second, and he’s shown he is more than willing to distribute the ball in this series. I think this line is a steal ahead of Game 4.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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