Heavily Favored Arkansas Must be Aware of Opening-Round Shocker

History says Arkansas could be ambushed by Hawaii when the Razorbacks and Rainbow Warriors square off Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

I say that's hogwash because coach John Calipari's team is too talented, too quick, and too motivated to bite the dust on the first official day of March Madness.

Nope, the Hogs will handle Hawaii, the lone tourney team from the Big West Conference. The Rainbow Warriors were second in the league but topped regular-season champ Cal-Irvine in their tourney title tilt.

Arkansas Razorbacks coach John Calipari is coaching in his 25th NCAA Tournament, 24 more than Hawaii's coach. Calipari has reached six Final Fours and won the national championship in 2012. | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Keep reading to find out why Hawaii is out of its league in this matchup. But first, No. 4 seeds have lost 33 times in the last 41 years to a 13 seed. That's since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

That's in 160 games, with the underdog No. 13 team winning 20.6% of the time. Yes, the Hogs must beware because this is indeed March Madness when upsets always happen.

Last No. 4 seed to lose in opening round from SEC

The last No. 4 to fall to a No. 13 was just two years ago when Auburn was shocked by Yale, champ of the Ivy League.

If a No. 4 goes down Thursday or Friday, I say it'll be Nebraska who is matched against Troy. Problem for the Cornhuskers is they are 6-6 since a 20-0 start.

And the 'Huskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game. They're 0-8 and the only school from a power conference without a victory in the tourney that started way back in 1939.

The other 4-13 matchups are Kansas against Cal Baptist and Alabama versus Hofstra. The Jayhawks and Crimson Tide should both win at least one in the tourney.

Former Razorback star makes outlandish prediction

Former Razorbacks sharpshooter Pat Bradley, an all-time Arkansas great, is an analyst on the SEC Network. Is he a bit of a homer? Yeah, but SEC and Arkansas fans like that.

Bradley predicts five SEC teams will survive the first week of March Madness and reach the Sweet 16. That's bold talk, Shootah. I'll agree it's possible but not probable.

ESPN and SEC broadcaster Pat Bradley works a game during the 2022 season. | Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

That means not only would No. 1 seed Florida be among the last 16 but also No. 4 Arkansas, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Vanderbilt and No. 6 Tennessee.

Florida and the Hogs will get there and Alabama's guards and style will cause anyone trouble. Vandy is hot and their guards are on a roll. Tennessee star freshman Nate Ament practiced Wednesday after missing the last two weeks with an injured ankle.

Maybe Bradley is correct and all five will advance to the tourney's second week. That would vindicate the SEC, which didn't get a ton of respect from the Selection Committee which placed only Florida above a No. 4 seed.

Here's why Hawaii has no chance against Arkansas

In 2021, two No. 13 seeds scored opening-round upsets. That's not likely to happen this year as this the first time since since 1985 that all four No. 4 seeds are favored by at least 12.5 points.

The Razorbacks are a 15.5-point favorite and should run the Rainbow Warriors ragged. Hawaii's reward for earning the NCAA invite is a heavy dose of Darius Acuff Jr.

Acuff is a first-team All-American, the best guard in the country, and SEC Player of the Year. Since the Rainbow Warriors' style of defense is not to help much, the guy assigned to slow Acuff has his hands full.

Hawaii plays “no switch defense”

What does this mean? They don’t allow many assists. But, a Hawaii basketball player is going to have to guard Darius Acuff 1v1 with ZERO HELP😅

They also drop coverage on every screen. It’s been their bread and butter in conference play.

If… pic.twitter.com/cX4hOZgST8
— Razorbackology (@arkrazorbackx) March 17, 2026

Hawaii hasn't faced a player close to Acuff's ability -- or that of Meleek Thomas or maybe Trevon Brazile.

If seeds don't matter, does this analytic tell true story?

Here's a stat that matters: Arkansas will be the first Quad 1 opponent Hawaii has played this season.

Against Quad 2 teams, Hawaii is 0-4. They're 8-2 against Quad 3s and 14-2 against Quad 4s.

Hawaii is No. 101 in Net Ranking. Arkansas is No. 15 and battle tested after being the first ever to play all Elite Eight teams from the previous season.

True or False. A team that won their conference will win the national championship. pic.twitter.com/Ezvp826GY7
— The Best of Sports (@SportsGreatest0) March 16, 2026

Arkansas scheduled Duke, Houston, Michigan State and Texas Tech. They also played defending champ Florida and final eight teams Alabama, Auburn and Tennessee.

Against that rugged schedule, the Hogs are 8-8 against Quad 1 foes. They're 8-0 versus Quad 2 schools, 4-0 with Quad 3s, and 6-0 while dominating Quad 4s.

Sounds like a blowout. But don't tell Hawaii. Let the games begin.

Last No. 4 seed to lose in opening round from SEC

Former Razorback star makes outlandish prediction

Here's why Hawaii has no chance against Arkansas

If seeds don't matter, does this analytic tell true story?

Hogs Feed