Match-ups, Trends, Prediction Guide for Hogs in Round of 32 Against High Point

PORTLAND, Ore. — Arkansas handled its business in the opening round with a decisive win over Hawaii, but the path forward just became a tad bit complicated.

The Razorbacks draw a confident and dangerous High Point team Saturday night after the Panthers pulled off the first true bracket busters of the NCAA Tournament on opening day. Now, coach John Calipari must quickly reset his Hogs against a team playing with momentum and nothing to lose.

How to Watch

Who: Arkansas vs. High Point
Where: Moda Arena, Portland, Oregon
What: NCAA Tournament Round of 32, West Region
When: Saturday, March 21
Time: 8:45 p.m. CT
TV: TBS
Radio: Razorbacks Sports Network

Key Match-up

High Point's upset of Wisconsin is just the latest 12-seed over a 5-seed in NCAA Tournament history. The Panthers victory is the 58th time that has happened, which lowers No. 5 seeds' all-time win percentage to 64.1% from 64.4%.

There's one player Arkansas likely won't have an answer for when both teams take the floor Saturday evening as High Point's Chase Johnston can and will take a three from anywhere on the court.

Honestly, there was a warning of Johnston's sniper ability on social media when the NCAA Tournament bracket was released.

Who is the mid-major player to know in Portland this week?

Chase Johnston, High Point
64-of-132, 48% 3-pt shooter
Only taken four shots from two this season

Volume 3-point shooter you better contain or he’ll be busting some @MarchMadnessMBB brackets! pic.twitter.com/SvNxavwmvw
— Jacob Davis (@jacobdaviscfb) March 16, 2026

Though his three-point prowess is impressive at nearly 50% on the season, he obviously can't be forgotten about in run out opportunities such as the game winner against Wisconsin.

Johnston made exactly 0 (ZERO) two-point baskets on four attempts prior to the tournament, but when his team needed him most he made the game-winning layup in transition. Despite unlimited range taking three-pointers from the logo, his March moment ironically came in his own uncoventional way.

Under veteran coach Greg Card, Wisconsin has fallen victim to a first or second round exit each of the previous six NCAA Tournament appearances dating back to 2019. While his job may not be above the flame yet, his performance over the past decade has drawn scrutiny since taking over for Bo Ryan.

This man has some Alex Dillard range and then some.

Chase Johnston. Special.

Will Arkansas be able to contain him on Saturday? @MarchMadnessMBB pic.twitter.com/BEGa2pXjc1
— Jacob Davis (@jacobdaviscfb) March 20, 2026

Arkansas may not be able to contain Johnston as a shooter. He's proven to be unafraid to pull up anywhere against anyone on the court to drill a three which makes him the ultimate X-factor the Razorbacks must account for to make another appearance in the Sweet 16.

Let "The GOAT" Eat

Arkansas Razorbacks forward Billy Richmond III (24) dribbles in the first half against Hawaii. — Arkansas Razorbacks forward Billy Richmond III (24) dribbles in the first half against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Calipari refers to him as the "Goat" because he plays hard, makes clutch plays, and brings high energy as the Razorbacks' secret weapon who impacts games without needing high shot volume.

His nickname certainly tracks well since he is arguably the Razorbacks' best perimeter defender as he ranks in the 77th-percentile for defensive win percentage, according to CBB Analytics.

Johnston will have to keep in mind Richmond is among the best in the country at picking off passes, and blocking shots anywhere on the floor. High Point likely hasn't gone up against a defender who is as relentless as Richmond, which could be a double-edged sword this weekend.

Athletic Mismatch?

Th Razorbacks certainly looked the part of a second-weekend team in its opener, overwhelming Hawaii with pace, shot-making, physicality and confidence that teams in the tournament need to advance.

The Razorbacks scored 97 points against the Rainbow Warriors even on a day the whole squad struggled to connect from deep. Arkansas controlled tempo early to stretch out a double-digit early on in the first half.

That type of tempo allowed Arkansas to get out in transtion while continuing to pile on highlight reel dunks and dagger threes.

Arkansas Razorbacks forward Malique Ewin (12) celebrates after a basket in the first half against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Hogs' Potential X-Factor?

Calipari's team continues to show offensive balance up-and-down the roster and appeared to become a problem in the post with Malique Ewin, who played 31 minutes Thursday with the absence of regular starter Nick Pringle.

Ewin recorded his second double-double in three games with a 16 points, 12 rebounds (six offensive boards), six assists (season-high), two steals, and one block against Hawaii. His presence in the Razorbacks line-up could pay off later down the road in the tournament against teams looking to play downhill more than what High Point will bring.

The Panthers made 15-of-40 shots from deep against Wisconsin, and will ultimately challenge Arkansas' perimeter discipline on defense. Coach Flynn Clayman's team has an effective field goal percentage of 56.6%, which ranks No. 18 and just ahead of Arkansas at No. 22 (56.5%).

Arkansas threw down 1️⃣1️⃣ dunks today 😳#MarchMadness @RazorbackMBB pic.twitter.com/rQ93rODT3o
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 19, 2026

Arguably, the Razorbacks best chance of getting High Point out of rhythm is by attacking the boards for long rebounds, and getting out in transition with a focus on getting to the rim. Arkansas brought a sense of balance on the offensive end with constant ball movement that equaled 26 assists on 32 made field goals, including 11 alley-oops.

If Arkansas can continue its crisp ball movement, keeping multiple scoring options on the floor at all times can put the pressure on a 31-win High Point team looking to make its first ever Sweet 16.

What to Expect

Tempo: While a high tempo game often favors High Point, the Razorbacks have excelled in transition more times this season than it hasn't. Arkansas leads the remainder of the NCAA Tournament field for fast break points per game at 19.12 this season.

It comes as no surprise after Thursday's upset victory over Wisconsin that High Point is No. 2 on the list at 18.88 points per game. Both teams ranked No. 2 and No. 3 nationally behind Georgia, who was knocked out of the tournament after being beaten to a pulp by Saint Louis.

Saturday night will come down to which team is the fittest, and even then it could come down to the final possession.

Close game: High Point has played only four games this season decided by four points or less with a record of 3-1. Arkansas has been involved in seven such games with a record of 6-1, it's lone loss coming on the road 66-63 against Michigan State in November.

The Razorbacks have been challenged each week facing one of the hardest schedules in college basketball comprising of all eight teams from last year's Elite Eight. That should favor Arkansas in this one, sending home High Point after its first tournament victory in school history.

Trends

Arkansas is 21-2 this season when scoring 85+ points with its only two losses coming against Alabama and Houston.

High Point is 16-2 this season when making 10+ three-point attempts with its only two losses coming against Appalachian State and Southern Illinois.

Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) drives against Hawaii Rainbow Warriors forward Harry Rouhliadeff (14) in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

It's reasonable to expect this game will be a high-scoring affair with plenty of fast break opportunities. However, it'll be the SEC's Player of the Year taking over yet again to send the Razorbacks to San Diego for a second straight Sweet 16.

Final: Arkansas 92, High Point 81

Arkansas’ depth, athleticism and experience against elite competition should ultimately create separation late. If the Razorbacks stay disciplined defensively and avoid turning this into a perimeter shootout, they have all the tools to advance.

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