Road to the Final Four: March Madness Predictions, Picks for All Elite 8 Games

The Sweet 16 is behind us, but the NCAA Tournament waits for no one as the Elite Eight is set to begin right away, with two of the four games scheduled for Saturday night.

The Big Ten has dominated this year's edition of March Madness. Four of the final eight teams come from the conference, and if things break their way, there's a chance they make up three of the final four teams.

Let's take a look at my best bet for all four games this weekend.

March Madness Elite Eight Picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Illinois -7 (-110) vs. Iowa
Arizona -6 (-110) vs. Purdue
Michigan -7.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee
UConn +5 (-110) vs. Duke

Iowa vs. Illinois Prediction

Iowa has done well to get to this point, but they're in over their head against this Illinois squad on Saturday night. Not only can the Fighting Illini match Iowa when it comes to offensive output, but Illinois is far better defensively, ranking 69th in defensive efficiency.

The Fighting Illini also play elite fundamental basketball. They're in the top 10 in both rebounding and turnovers, which has led to them leading the entire country in effective possession ratio. That's a big reason why they were able to upset Houston. Meanwhile, that's an area that Iowa is weak in, ranking just 141st in effective possession ratio, being in the middle of the pack in both rebounding and turnovers.

The Hawkeyes are going to have to shoot the lights out on Saturday night if they want any hope of hanging with Illinois. I'll back the Fighting Illini as favorites in this one.

Pick: Illinois -7 (-110)

Purdue vs. Arizona Prediction

Purdue benefited from facing a few teams in this tournament who have struggled defensively this season. That's not going to be the case against Arizona. The Wildcats have been playing near-flawless basketball all season, and they're peaking at the perfect time. They rank 36th in effective field goal percentage and sixth in defensive efficiency.

If any team wants to hang with the Wildcats, they have to find a way to defend the interior. 73.6% of Arizona's shots this season have come from two-point range, which is the third-highest rate amongst all teams. Now, they get to face a Purdue team that struggles defending the interior, ranking 250th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 53.3% from two-point range. That area has gotten even worse for them in the tournament, allowing teams to shoot 55.7% from two-point range over their last three games.

I think Arizona is going to once again win in convincing fashion.

Pick: Arizona -6 (-110)

Tennessee vs. Michigan Prediction

Tennessee has shot uncharacteristically well so far in this tournament, with an effective field goal percentage of over 5% better than its season average. I expect that to come crashing down when they take on the elite defensive team that Michigan is. Even with the great numbers of late, Tennessee still ranks just 143rd in eFG%.

The Vols hardly ever shoot the three-ball, ranking inside the top 40 in the country in two-point shot rate. Now, they have to face one of the best interior defenses in college basketball. Michigan ranks fourth in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting 44.6% from two-point range.

As good as Tennessee is defensively, they're still behind the Wolverines in that area, ranking 34th in defensive efficiency compared to Michigan at eighth.

All signs point to the Wolverines winning and covering on Sunday.

Pick: Michigan -7.5 (-110)

UConn vs. Duke Prediction

UConn was an underrated team heading into the tournament after stumbling late in the regular season and losing to St. John's in the Big East Tournament final, but make no mistake, the Huskies are a dangerous squad on both sides of the court. They rank 33rd in effective field goal percentage and 13th in defensive efficiency. Not only that, but they keep teams to shooting just 30.6% from beyond the arc, which will prove pivotal against a Duke team that ranks in the top 100 in three-point shot rate.

The Blue Devils typically have a big rebounding advantage over their opponents, but they won't have that in this game as the Huskies rank 21st in the country in rebounding rate. If they can limit Duke's extra scoring opportunities, they have a chance to bring this game down to the wire.

Pick: UConn +5 (-110)

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