We Know Number That Decides Two Razorbacks' Futures and NBA

John Calipari made it clear first round means gone, second round means back for Meleek Thomas, Billy Richmond heading into combine week.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors forward Isaac Finlinson (6) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks guard Meleek Thomas (1) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Nobody's pretending there's real mystery here anymore.

When Arkansas coach John Calipari sat down with Barstool Live and explained how Meleek Thomas and Billy Richmond would approach the 2026 NBA Draft process, he made it about as plain as it gets.

Calipari said they want to get both players picked in the first round, adding, "They may both come back if they're not in that first round."

That's the whole story right there. One round. Thirty picks. That's the dividing line between two freshmen staying in the draft and two Razorbacks coming home to Fayetteville.

Both players entered the process while holding onto their college eligibility, which tells you something about how they're approaching it.

They're not walking away from Arkansas.

They're testing the temperature of the water and they want to make sure it's warm enough before they dive in for keeps. The deadline for players to withdraw from the draft and return to college is May 27.

That gives them a little time after the combine to collect feedback and figure out where they're actually sitting.

The combine itself runs May 10-17 in Chicago, and both Thomas and Richmond have been invited.

Guards Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas, wing Billy Richmond and forward Trevon Brazile were each invited among the 73 players summoned to the combine.

That's a significant group of Hogs in one place, though Acuff and Brazile are locked into the process. For Thomas and Richmond,

Arkansas Razorbacks forward Billy Richmond III (24) commits an offensive foul against Arizona Wildcats forward Koa Peat (10) in the second half during a Sweet 16 game of the West Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Thomas Is the More Compelling Case

Of the two, Thomas carries the more interesting draft story.

As of now, Thomas is considered a consensus late first-round prospect by most evaluators tracking the 2026 class.

That sounds promising on the surface, but late first round means one bad workout or one deeper-than-expected draft class can slide you right out of the guaranteed money and into murky territory.

Thomas, a 6-foot-5 off-guard, ranked top-15 in the SEC in points, 3-pointers and steals during the 2025-26 season.

He did that largely while playing in the shadow of teammate Darius Acuff, the consensus All-American who consumed most of the attention in Fayetteville this winter.

Thomas was the second option and he still produced. That's worth something to scouts.

NBA teams could see late first-round value in Thomas around his potential to provide instant offense, spot-up shooting and active defense off the bench.

He's not projected as a starter. He's projected as a guy who can come off the bench, knock down shots and guard multiple positions. That's a real NBA role.

The question is whether 30 teams are convinced enough to take him before that 30th pick is used.

Thomas is considered to have flashed one-and-done level upside, and it starts with his shooting. He knocked down 41.6 percent of his 3-pointers during his freshman year, which is a number that gets attention.

The concern scouts have consistently raised is his slight frame and what happens when NBA-level contact enters the picture. If he adds strength, the ceiling rises. If he can't, there's a real question about whether his game translates the way teams hope.

Thomas was an SEC All-Freshman Team selection this season as he largely played as a secondary offensive option to Acuff. Coming back for a second year and operating as the clear primary creator could do a lot for his value.

The argument for returning is straightforward. If he slides out of the first round this June and then spends next season averaging 20 points a game as the featured option, his draft stock in 2027 could look completely different.

Arkansas Razorbacks guard Meleek Thomas (1) celebrates after the men's SEC Conference Tournament Championship against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Bridgestone Arena. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Richmond's Path Is Steeper

Billy Richmond's situation is tougher to be optimistic about on the draft side. Richmond does not appear in the NBA Draft first round in most projections.

That's the key context. It's not just that Richmond needs to move up the board.

It's that he's trying to move up a board that's crowded at the top with an unusually strong group of freshmen. There's less room for a sophomore wing who's still developing his perimeter shot.

Richmond averaged 11.2 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, played all 37 games and was voted to the 2026 SEC All-Defensive Team. He's a real player and he proved it this year.

His versatility is genuine. He's described as Arkansas' most versatile player, having played the 1, 2, 3 and 4 positions.

That kind of positional flexibility matters at the next level, but it has to come with scoring upside and the main area scouts are concerned about with Richmond is his jump shooting.

Richmond did improve offensively this season. He averaged 5.7 points and 3 rebounds as a freshman before his improvements this season. That growth is real.

The question is whether he's improved enough to convince 30 front offices that he belongs in the first round right now, in this draft, against this competition.

If the combine goes well and Richmond somehow generates first-round buzz, that'd be a genuine surprise based on where things stand today.

More likely he hears what Calipari telegraphed and comes back to Fayetteville with something to prove.

Arkansas Razorbacks coach John Calipari on the sidelines during game against Fresno State at Simmons Bank Arena in North Little Rock, Ark. | Ted McClenning-allHOGS Images

What a Return Would Mean for the Hogs

If one or both players come back, it changes Arkansas's outlook considerably.

If Richmond returns, the Razorbacks bring back a proven two-way contributor and veteran returnee who has plenty of NCAA experience and is fully capable of impacting the game without needing a lot of minutes.

Thomas coming back has its own appeal. A return to Arkansas could offer a much more future-proof path. Thomas would be a fitting stylistic complement in the Hogs' 2026-27 backcourt between five-stars Jordan Smith Jr. and JJ Andrews, who both love getting to the rim and dishing out to teammates.

The incoming recruiting class is talented. Three five-star prospects are headed to Fayetteville.

Adding Thomas and Richmond back into that mix would give Calipari a roster with legitimate depth and multiple players capable of creating off the dribble.

That's a formula that could push Arkansas deeper into March than the Sweet 16 exit that closed this season.

The Razorbacks are clearly no longer a program that struggles to recruit or develop NBA talent. Calipari has proven that in two seasons.

The development argument can't be overlooked.

If Richmond stays in the draft, it marks another example of Calipari's ability to develop NBA-ready talent in a short window. Either way the program benefits from the attention.

Arkansas Razorbacks' Billy Richmond against the Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in San Jose, Calif. | Munir El-Khatib-allHOGS Images

Waiting on Chicago

Nobody's making a final call before those combine workouts happen. That's the whole point of the process.

Thomas and Richmond will get in front of teams, run through drills, sit in interviews and find out pretty quickly whether the first-round conversation is real or theoretical.

According to most major mock drafts, there's a really good chance at least one is trending towards a return while the other's status is very much in the air.

That reads like Richmond coming back and Thomas being the genuine question mark. It's not certain, but it's where things point right now. Thomas at late first round is a real possibility.

Richmond at first round is a stretch based on current information.

Calipari's already told you what the threshold is. He put it plainly on Barstool Live and there's no reason to read anything complicated into it.

Get into that first round and you're gone. Land outside it and Fayetteville is probably where you'll be when October practice rolls around.

The combine starts in less than a week.

By May 27, there won't be anything left to wonder about.