3 Reasons Why Auburn Could Lose to Illinois State in NIT Semifinals

The top-seeded Auburn Tigers take on Illinois State on Thursday night in Indianapolis with a trip to the NIT championship on the line, but the semifinal matchup will likely feature Auburn’s toughest NIT opponent thus far.

The Redbirds boast a 23-12 overall record and finished third in the Missouri Valley Conference at 12-8 in league play. They knocked off Kent State, Wake Forest, and Dayton in their first three games of the tournament en route to Indy.

Fourth-year head coach Ryan Pedon and company boast three Quad 1 wins on the season — Wake Forest, Northern Iowa, and Dayton — all of which, of course, came in the NIT. In comparison, Auburn holds just one more Quad 1 victory with four.

Let’s dive into three reasons why the Redbirds could defeat the Tigers on Thursday night.

Frontcourt Mismatch

Illinois State is headlined by junior big man Chase Walker, who could present a massive challenge for a thin Auburn frontcourt.

Walker leads the Redbirds in scoring and rebounding with 13.7 points and 5.4 boards per game while averaging 22.6 minutes of action.

“Chase Walker is an absolute handful underneath,” Auburn head coach Steven Pearl said of the 6-foot-9, 280-pounder.

Additionally, Illinois State also features 7-foot-1 senior center Brandon Lieb, who averages 3.2 points and 4.1 rebounds per game.

On the other hand, Auburn’s bigs are extremely limited and undersized after senior KeShawn Murphy stepped away from the team before the NIT began. The Tigers will look to freshmen Sebastian Williams-Adams and Filip Jović to carry the load down low against the impressive Illinois State frontcourt.

Points in the paint and advantage on the glass could be one of the game’s most deciding factors on Thursday.

Perimeter Shooting

In addition to an impressive paint presence, the Redbirds can also knock down the deep-ball, as four players who shoot 39.0% or better from behind the arc.

Their backcourt is led by senior guard Boden Skunberg, who has drained 57 total 3-pointers this season and averaged 39.9% from downtown in his fifth year of college basketball.

Other names to watch are senior Johnny Kinziger, Landon Wolf, and Ty’Reek Coleman, all of whom could create havoc on the perimeter for the Tigers.

Auburn’s 3-point defense has been one of its biggest flaws this year, as the Tigers rank last in the SEC in opponent 3-point percentage. If Auburn wishes to earn itself an NIT championship berth, perimeter defense must be a point of emphasis.

Strong Defense

Lastly, the Redbirds can also get it done on the other side of the floor, as they rank No. 39 nationally in scoring defense. They’re currently second in the MVC in opponent points per game with 67.9, sitting only behind Northern Iowa, which leads the country with 61.8.

Auburn has become stagnant at times throughout the season, but Pearl’s squad can’t afford to settle for less-than-desirable 3-pointers and fold into playing individual basketball on the offensive end in crunch time.

The Tigers and Redbirds are set to tip off at 8:30 p.m. CDT inside Hinkle Fieldhouse, and Auburn should be on high alert entering the contest.

Because if they aren’t the most excited team to play and fail to focus on the scouting report, Pearl and the Tigers could find themselves heading back to the Plains early.