What HaslaMetrics says about Auburn vs Iowa in the NCAA tournament
Former Villanova head coach Jay Wright should be correct - Auburn vs Iowa is going to be fun.
For the fourth time in the last five seasons, Bruce Pearl will bring Auburn to the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers (20-12) have earned a 9-seed in the Midwest Region of the bracket. They will face off against the 8-seed Iowa Hawkeyes in the opening round. Auburn gets Iowa in Birmingham, Alabama, just a two-hour drive from the Plains.
Most signs point towards the game being an incredibly competitive matchup. KenPom gives Auburn a 55% chance to win, ESPN gives them a 57.5% chance, and Torvik gives the Tigers a 60% chance.
Here's what HaslaMetrics has to say in their automated breakdown of the game.
NOTE: This is all automated and can be found at HaslaMetrics.com.
AUBURN IN POSSESSION: The Auburn offense most definitely should have the upper hand on the Iowa defense in this matchup. The Auburn offense is ranked #40 in Division I, while Iowa comes in nationally at #170 on defense.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the Iowa defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Auburn offense will be 33.4% three-pointers (3.5% below the D1 average), 29.3% mid-range jumpers (1.2% above the D1 average), and 37.3% near-proximity twos (2.2% above the D1 average).
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the Iowa defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Auburn offense will be 33.4% three-pointers (3.5% below the D1 average), 29.3% mid-range jumpers (1.2% above the D1 average), and 37.3% near-proximity twos (2.2% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Auburn should comfortably win the rebounding battle on this end. Auburn rates as a fairly good team on the offensive glass. To boot, they are first-class at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 14th nationally in that category. The opposition here, Iowa, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they're similarly so-so in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #236 in the country in that department).
TURNOVERS: The Iowa defense has a small advantage over the Auburn offense in the turnover battle on this end. On offense, Auburn is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Iowa defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 52nd in that category).
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Auburn has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #63 in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (70.4%, 234th in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious Iowa defense surprisingly won't commit that many personal fouls and ranks tenth in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.
IOWA IN POSSESSION: These two squads are very evenly matched when Iowa is on offense. This site rates Iowa to be third in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Auburn is currently our #17 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The Iowa offense is relatively balanced with inside and outside shots alike, while the Auburn defense typically allows marginally more chances from the paint than from the perimeter. Against the Auburn defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Iowa offense will be 34.8% three-pointers (2.1% below the D1 average), 26.7% mid-range jumpers (1.3% below the D1 average), and 38.5% near-proximity twos (3.4% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Iowa does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 34th in the country in overall field goal percentage. The Auburn defense, meanwhile, has been one of the best in the country when it comes to defensive field goal percentage, nationally rated 24th in that category. On this end of the court, the Iowa offense has a notable advantage in near-proximity shooting, while the Auburn defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting. We expect Iowa to shoot 32.0% from behind the arc (2.4% below the D1 average), 32.6% from mid-range locations (5.8% below the D1 average), 61.9% from near-proximity (3.1% above the D1 average), and 43.7% overall (0.4% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Iowa appears to hold a significant rebounding edge on this end of the court. Iowa has the fingerprint of a unit that can really hammer the offensive boards at an elite level. To boot, they are sensational at scoring quickly off of any second-chance opportunities they obtain (nationally rated #6 in that department). Their opponent in this matchup, Auburn, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, and they're similarly only fair in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 136th in the country there).
FREE THROWS: Iowa should obtain a fairly healthy number of free throw attempts in this matchup. They're typically a team that likes to get to the charity stripe frequently (39th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (74.4%, ranked #86 in Division I). As for the opposition, the aggressive Auburn defense, as expected, will be more likely to foul than most other D1 squads, ranking 300th in the nation in defensive free throw attempt rate.
THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. Iowa (95th in the NCAA in game pace) favors a brisk tempo, while Auburn (181st) likes things at more of an average clip.
AWAY-FROM-HOME: Iowa may fare worse than expected here, as their performances away from home, on average, have been far more inferior than their performances in front of a home crowd.
MOMENTUM: Neither one of these teams has played its best basketball as of late. Iowa is 288th nationally in positive momentum, while Auburn currently ranks 268th.
CONSISTENCY: This contest features two of the NCAA's more erratic teams. Auburn ranks 353rd in the country in consistency, while Iowa is currently 343rd in that category.
THE VERDICT:
Two very evenly matched teams here. A basket or two is all that separates them. Auburn 77.63, Iowa 75.40.
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