Breaking Down Auburn's Path to the 2026 NCAA Tournament

It wasn’t long ago that the Auburn Tigers had the overall No. 1 seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament virtually locked up at this time last year.

This season, although expected, has certainly been a regression from last year’s historic campaign, which was statistically the best in program history.

This year’s squad of Tigers is a bit different, as they currently sit at 14-11 overall and are two games under .500 (5-7) in the SEC with six matchups remaining. Most aren’t shocked that the first season of the Steven Pearl era is a rebuild and transition year, but some may not have thought Auburn would be on the verge of the March Madness bubble with three weeks left to play.

However, the Tigers are inching their way closer to the bubble with every loss they compile. Auburn has dropped its last four, falling to Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas, and though all contests are Quad 1 losses, the Tigers had a solid chance to steal two of those. Pearl and company led the Crimson Tide by 10 in the first half of the Iron Bowl of Basketball, and the Vanderbilt game the following Tuesday was extremely winnable.

Auburn is one of the most confusing teams in the nation, as it has been struggling in a multitude of outings while also holding wins over No. 17 St. John’s, No. 20 Arkansas, and No. 12 Florida (using most recent AP Poll rankings), which has emerged in recent weeks as the best team in the SEC and one of the hottest in the nation. The Tigers simply blew out the Razorbacks inside Neville Arena in January and followed by picking up a historic win in Gainesville over the Gators, but they were unable to build on their successes.

As of Tuesday, Auburn is projected to be a No. 9 seed when Selection Sunday arrives in less than three weeks, according to CBS Sports. Other sites predicted the Tigers as high as a No. 7 seed a month ago, but their recent stumbles have caused them to drop a few seed lines.

Although Auburn’s record is certainly not impressive, one thing that is keeping the Tigers firmly in the mix is their strength of schedule. According to KenPom, Auburn boasts the No. 1 strength of schedule nationally, which makes sense when considering how it has faced the AP No. 1, No. 2, No. 4, No. 7, No. 12, No. 17, No. 19, No. 20, and No. 25-ranked teams.

Looking ahead, Auburn desperately needs to finish the regular season strong. In the final six games, the Tigers’ are set to play at Mississippi State, Kentucky, at Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU, and at Alabama.

Realistically, a solid aspiration for Auburn to aim for is 5-1, with possibly winning one of either Kentucky or Alabama. Their meetings with Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and LSU are absolute must-wins, as any losses against the bottom-feeders of the SEC could be viewed as a massive resume flaw.

If Auburn finishes the year at 4-2 with losses to Kentucky and Alabama, the Tigers are likely still in the field of 68. However, anything less than 4-2, meaning Auburn would’ve fallen to Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, or LSU, will have them firmly on the bubble of the tournament.

Auburn would finish the conference slate at 9-9 if it were to finish 4-2 down the homestretch, and winning a couple of games in the SEC Tournament could potentially help out the Tigers, as well. If they do that, Auburn could be looking at a No. 8 or No. 9 seed.

All in all, the odds of the Tigers earning another March Madness bid are in their favor. Win the games they’re supposed to win, maybe steal one they aren’t, and perform like an NCAA Tournament-caliber squad against majority lackluster competition, and Auburn will most likely find themselves dancing for the fifth consecutive season.