Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: SEC Teams Drop, TCU Moves to Last Team in

We’re inside a month until Selection Sunday. A key milestone looms Saturday with the men’s selection committee’s top 16 reveal, an early look at where many of the best teams in the sport stand that can give some hints as to things the committee values most this season. Before then, we have a busy week of games ahead, many of which have substantial bracket implications.

What’s the latest in the field of 68 after a chaotic weekend of action? Here’s Sports Illustrated’s latest projected field.

Previous Bracket Watches: Jan. 21 | Feb. 3 | Feb. 10

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Texas A&M
USC
Saint Mary’s
Georgia

Last Four In

UCLA
San Diego State
Santa Clara
TCU

First Four Out

Missouri
New Mexico
VCU
Ohio State

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Cal
Seton Hall

Two SEC teams drop into the last four byes in the midst of losing skids: Texas A&M after four straight losses is now our eighth team clear of the cut line, while Georgia after dropping five of six is now just four spots clear after getting blown out by Oklahoma. Georgia, in particular, could be in trouble given a bottom-30 nonconference schedule and a tough SEC slate down the stretch.

The new last team in: TCU. The Horned Frogs beating Iowa State last week gives them two monster wins having already beaten Florida in November, and winning at Oklahoma State over the weekend also helps a bit. Having a Quad 3 and a Quad 4 loss already makes TCU’s margin for error razor thin though.

One team to monitor is West Virginia, which added another Quad 1 win Saturday at UCF. West Virginia has four Quad 1 wins, no losses outside of the top two quadrants and a very manageable schedule down the stretch to push toward 20-plus wins. Metrics aren’t kind to West Virginia at the moment, and the Mountaineers’ nonconference schedule was one of the worst in the country which won’t help. But after being the first team out of last year’s Big Dance, it’s easy to root for West Virginia to find its way on the right side of the bubble this time around.

* — indicates projected automatic qualifier

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 NJIT*/Howard*
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 UCF
No. 5 St. John’s* vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington*
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Georgia
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Wright State*
No. 7 Saint Louis* vs. No. 10 USC
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Austin Peay*

At 23–1, Saint Louis has solidified itself as an at-large team save for an immense collapse down the stretch. The more interesting question is how high the Billikens could realistically rise up the seed list if they keep winning. The No. 4 or 5 line seems like a realistic ceiling given Saint Louis’s lack of top-tier wins and weak nonconference schedule, and getting there might require winning out. Most critical though is simply staying clear of the dreaded No. 8-vs.-9 game that earns you a date with a No. 1 seed in the second round.

We wrote last week about Miami’s lacking profile, particularly from a big wins standpoint. That changed this past week with wins over North Carolina and on the road at NC State. The Canes climb all the way from one of the last teams in, to our last No. 8 seed and should be safe for NCAA tournament selection in Jai Lucas’s first year without a collapse down the stretch.

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 LIU*/Bethune-Cookman*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Belmont*
No. 4 Gonzaga* vs. No. 13 Hawai’i*
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Santa Clara/TCU
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 California Baptist*
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Saint Mary’s
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Portland State*

Texas Tech won at Arizona on Saturday in one of the best wins by any team this season, adding to a profile that already includes wins over Duke and Houston. Six total losses could be a problem to try and jump up into top-two-seed territory, but teams could drop back toward them down the stretch.

Everything about Auburn’s profile as of now is NCAA tournament caliber in spite of its 11 losses, but the Tigers will be walking the tightrope down the stretch to avoid getting too close to .500 overall to sneak in. Circle key road games against bottom-tier SEC teams Mississippi State and Oklahoma over the next 10 days as crucial ones to find a way to win.

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 UT Martin*
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Indiana
No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 12 South Florida*
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State*
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 North Dakota State*

It was a needle-moving week for Louisville, beating NC State by 41 points before handling Baylor in a late-season nonconference matchup. The Cardinals have won five straight and are looking increasingly difficult to guard with Mikel Brown Jr., emerging into a star. Louisville has a top-15 profile from a predictive perspective and has a chance to shoot up the seed list if it can build up its résumé down the stretch.

But no team helped its standing in the last week more than Wisconsin, which added two top-tier wins to its ledger with victories over Illinois and Michigan State. Most notably, the Badgers have two elite road wins against the Illini and overall No. 1 seed Michigan. Greg Gard’s team’s overall profile outside of those top-tier wins isn’t great, but they could keep climbing toward protected seed territory if they can stay hot.

South Region

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Merrimack*
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Texas
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Liberty*
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 Winthrop*
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 UCLA/San Diego State
No. 3 Florida* vs. No. 14 Appalachian State*
No. 7 Utah State* vs. No. 10 SMU
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Navy*

Houston had a chance to climb onto the No. 1 line had it won at Iowa State on Monday night, but lost in gutting fashion after holding a 10-point second-half lead. With the loss, the Cougars stay as the top No. 2 seed, but that still sends them to a potential semi-home regional with games played at the Toyota Center in Houston. Staying in the South Region would be a huge win for Kelvin Sampson’s team’s path.

The first conference title race to be wrapped up could end up being Conference USA, where Liberty has a whopping five-game lead with six games to play thanks to a 14–0 start. The Flames haven’t lost since Dec. 10 at NC State, relying on one of the best shooting offenses in the country to dismiss one CUSA foe after another. An at-large bid isn’t entirely off the table, though it’d require running the table deep into the CUSA tournament and even then might be a long shot.

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