Auburn A-day: Quarterback Analysis
Yes, there were several limiting factors for Auburn quarterbacks during A-day. It was a toad-strangler type of rainfall on the plains today, which is never conducive to good passing. There was going to be a minimized scheme as well as modified personnel groupings. However, there was enough there on film to get a decent feel for the progressions of each of these quarterbacks after fifteen Spring practices.
Sixty
That’s how many total yards of passing were accumulated by the three quarterbacks that played Saturday. That is not subtracting the sack yardage. It was a turnover-free day, which wasn’t for lack of trying.
I know, there will be a lot who say the running game (280 yards) was pushed to the forefront by the weather. There is some truth to that. Still, even if the weather had been a chamber of commerce type day, you had better believe you were going to get heavy doses of that offensive line and those running backs. There wasn’t a quarterback on the field today that was going to throw for a lot regardless of the situation or what anyone said.
There will probably be games like this in the Autumn. Cold, rainy, windy, it won’t matter then, the QB1 of this team will have to play in it. An analysis of how today went is an excellent example of where Auburn stands. It should be noted the order in which the quarterbacks entered the game. Robby Ashford got the nod to start. Followed by TJ Finley and Holden Geriner, respectively. The best way to do this is with the sell/keep/buy method. After an extensive look at the film:
Who I am selling
TJ Finley. I must admit I was looking for a lot more from Finley after having the starting role last year, plus all of his arm talent. Finley came in with the second string on Saturday. His first throw was an absolute bullet to receiver Tar 'Varish Dawson on a line screen that was promptly dropped. It was on the money and Dawson is probably still feeling where it hit him.
His second throw was another decent dart, to Nick Mardner this time, it was a fair check-down read as everyone else was locked down. Either way, freshman Kayin Lee made one heck of a play to recover on and knock away. It was listed on the broadcast as a drop, but on film, Lee definitely made-up space and got a hand on it. That was all the action Finley saw in the first half as the offense went stagnant.
He started the second half and that’s when the train that wasn’t on the rails properly, fully came off and derailed. Finley misses a wide-open check down and instead throws deep into triple coverage, yes you read that right, triple coverage. Any defense in the country picks that one off. The Auburn secondary was so confused by this pass they just knocked it away and stared at each other. Once again, his check-down man would have been able to catch the ball running for a big play. There was nothing redeeming about this throw, his mechanics, or the decision-making.
Back to the action: Finley’s next pass attempt is a stop-and-stare to Nick Mardner for a three-yard game. One might think that is a great thing. The truth is this was at best a knockdown and at worst a pick-six against any first-string defense Auburn is going to face. For the entirety of the play, Finley stared down Mardner. The defense gave that play; Finley didn’t make it. I will give him credit for a correct zone read on his next play, but once again, running is not his skill set. The play basically goes nowhere as no defense is the least bit concerned about his speed.
One would imagine that the lame duck into triple coverage mentioned earlier would be the worst of the day. Not a chance. Finley had what can only be described as the worst quarterback play, offensive play, worst pass, and worst decision-making play of the day in one..single..play. He leaves the pocket for zero reason, his protection was fantastic, and he had open receivers that he never looked towards, yet he scrambles up into his pass protection, and half sidearms a wayward pass, that bounced towards a tight end that was within three yards of him. When the coaches go back and look at this one on film the mind boggles as to what their reaction will be.
Play after play, Finley looked lost. His eyes were never in the right position on a passing play. He has what is called “pocket anxiety”. His footwork is not where it should be with how far along he is in his career. There is no question about this man’s arm strength. It just has not translated to the field for Auburn football. If anything, there has been a regression over where he was last year. That might be a shame, but this is the SEC. Auburn needs more. More on that later. He finished his day on 1 for 4 passing (25%) and gifted thirteen yards rushing.
Who I am keeping
Holden Geriner, If Auburn can keep him, has a bright future as a quarterback. He is not there yet. He came in with the third-string today and, if we are being fair, looked like what he is. A redshirt freshman quarterback with potential but no real game experience.
Geriner’s first pass attempt sailed several feet over a tight end in the flat. I am going to give the benefit of the doubt here and say that it is possible he saw the defensive player make a break on the route and threw it high on purpose. If that is the case, kudos young man. If, however, he had managed to keep the ball where it could be caught, it would have gone in the other direction for a pick-six. He stared down where he was going with the ball for 3.6 seconds. It was either smart or lucky that he airmailed it into the bench.
The next play of note, he bobbled a low snap in the shotgun. In these conditions, it really was an incredible play to maintain possession and get it handed to the running back in time. It was a play most people will miss, but it was an outstanding job. His eyes were on the ball, it was truly fantastic work to maintain composure. This is one of those “non-thinking” football plays that coaches love.
Geriner took a sack on his next dropback. I put this one on the offensive line. It was nearly immediate, and someone missed their assignment there.
Geriner was left in to start the second quarter with a bit of a “should have” play. He misreads an RPO but makes positive yards to the sideline. If he had chosen the pass option, he had Rivaldo Fairweather wide open for a big gain. For a quarterback with his arm, the pass option should always be checked. No harm, no foul. Chalk it up to a lesson learned.
Once again, on another possession, Geriner does a great job of digging out a low snap. He bobbles it, but picks it up, gets his eyes up, and completes what at the time was the first forward completion of the ball game. An amazing play for a kid in what was essentially his first bad-condition play in front of a massive crowd. That was it for his first half.
In the second half, Geriner forgot that his flat receiver wasn’t thirteen feet tall with a 48-inch vertical on his first pass attempt. That is to say, he was high by about two yards. Not great.
He does recover to zip a ball complete to a slip route out of the backfield that running back Sean Jackson made an outstanding catch on. It lacked “touch” and was really smoked in there, but it was on target and complete.
We are going to go ahead and give Geriner credit for a well-thrown ball to Landon King that netted twenty-four yards and moved the Tigers into scoring range. It should be recognized that this play would have been a sack and should have been called dead. Looking at the film it's probable that three offensive linemen were illegally downfield. And cornerback Kayin Lee was beaten by about seven yards on the play due to slipping, and he missed the tackle. Now, glossing over all that, it was a really good throw. His footwork was solid, and he did exactly what he was supposed to do.
Geriner did make the poorer choice on three zone reads, but he gets it right for a two-point conversion. It should be remembered that this play was a surprise to him as he thought the field goal team was coming in. He, and to be honest, everyone on offense, did as about as well as could be done and he showed little speed in getting the two points. That was it for his day.
It was a fairly impressive performance for where he is in his career. He is not ready to start in the SEC. I am not sure there is enough fall camp to get him to where he is ready for 2023. He will be a good quarterback. But when? He finished his day 3-5 for 17 yards (odd with a 24-yard completion). As odd as it is to say, out of the three he looks like a "quarterback" the most. Really kept his composure for the most part and fought through some adversity.
Who I am buying
Robby Ashford. Keep in mind, this is an impulse purchase that has to be made. It is one of those “you forgot to buy a gift, so you are in a pharmacy eight minutes before a birthday party” type of buys.
Right off the bat, it is fair to state that there was improvement with Ashford. He came out as the “starter” and looked very comfortable in this offense. He shot out of the gates fast with a good RPO read and a run around the end for a first down. He nearly got to open up his jets before being “tackled”, even though he didn’t, you could still see his pure speed and athleticism.
His first pass attempt left a lot to be desired. It was low, could have been intercepted at the line of scrimmage, but was harmlessly batted down by Caleb Wooden on a heads-up play. Tip your hat to the defense there and also realize it was the right read and he had an open receiver.
Ashford continued to do what he does, the defense had all the receivers locked down, so he scrambled for a first down. Followed by a nice zone read touchdown of twelve yards. Ashford came back in close to the end of the first half to show off his legs again. Runs for a first down. His ability to run was a constant threat.
Then Ashford had the play of the game. He picked on Freshmen Kayin Lee and nailed Tar ’Varish Dawson perfectly in stride for a thirty-nine-yard completion that was nearly perfect in every way. Ashford really excelled with this go-route toss. He spun a beautifully timed ball to look like a quarterback should. The footwork was good. Mechanics strong. He did stare down Dawson a bit, but otherwise it was a throw that showed quite a lot of improvement from last season.
He chased that with a decently thrown fade to the endzone for Landon King. It could have been placed a little higher for King to go get, but it was close enough on target to be successful. Here is a familiar name by this point, Kayin Lee was there for a really solid defensive play to knock loose the sure touchdown.
Ashford ended his day in the first half with a fairly decent scramble and clever side-arm flick to his tight end. Even though it was dropped it was another flash of what Ashford could be capable of. He ended his day on 1 for 3 passing gaining 39 yards with another 38 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Coach-speak
After the game Offensive Coordinator Phillip Montgomery stated that the quarterbacks are still missing the consistency that Auburn needs. Head Coach Freeze commented that he feels that Ashford improved and that he felt that Ashford and never been challenged like he was this Spring. Still, Freeze, he has said time and time again, stated he is open to getting a quarterback out of portal and that quarterback was definitely a position Auburn was looking at.
“Do I think we can win some games with what we have? Yes. But I don’t want to be put in a box where I say something, and we do something different.” - Coach Hugh Freeze
Final thoughts
Time for some prognostication. I think, after today’s game, that when the portal opens, we will see TJ Finley enter it and drop down to a division and a program where he might get to start and show off his arm. If he stays, he should fall to third, possibly fourth in the depth chart by the start of the season.
I don’t have a solid feeling for what Geriner is going to do. It would be great to see him stay and build on what he has. However, with Hank Brown coming in the Fall, Walker White committed for the next year, and a possible portal quarterback coming in, the kid has a tough choice to make. The room is going to fill up fast. Does he see himself in it? We will find out shortly.
Ashford isn’t going anywhere. Make no mistake, if Ashford is the starter come 2023 this will be for one of two reasons: One, a massive failure by the coaching staff in getting a quarterback from the portal. Or two, no quarterback of note shows up in the portal that says yes. Ashford gets this team to seven, perhaps eight wins if everything goes smoothly. A running quarterback having an injury is always a factor, he was injured last year, and rumor says he has suffered through a couple in Spring practices. He is a solid QB2 at this point in his career and should really flourish in that role. Perhaps they put in a few "wild cat" type formation in for him and he gets used quite a bit. It is just hard to picture him as a starter unless he has an amazing Fall camp.
I highly doubt the starting QB was on the field today. Even with Ashford's encouraging progressions, he is currently a back-up SEC quarterback. The running backs, offensive line, and this defense will give this team a chance in every game. If Freeze could truly pull off a coup with a quarterback out of the portal, his first season leading Auburn could be very interesting. If not, there will have to be a limited game plan and a nod towards getting some upsets to interest recruits for the future. We will know more about which it's going to be by May. Keep it locked to Auburn Daily to see what happens with the upcoming portal and all things Auburn.
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