Auburn Tigers Considered One of the Unluckiest Teams in 2024

After rebuilding its roster and seeing inexperienced freshmen rise to experienced sophomores, the Tigers are in a position to turn its luck around in 2025.

Nov 11, 2023; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks defensive lineman Trajan Jeffcoat (7) sacks Auburn Tigers quarterback Payton Thorne (1) during the second quarter at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-Imagn Images | Brett Rojo-Imagn Images

The Auburn Tigers finished 2024 with an abysmal 5-7 record, marking its fourth-straight losing season and fifth with less than seven wins.

While much of their shortcomings came off turnovers and sacks, the Tigers also suffered from something that many teams didn't have: bad luck. However, it appears that Auburn's bad luck may be turning around after a major roster overhaul this offseason.

According to ESPN's Billy Connelly, Auburn should be in a much better position to change their luck in the upcoming 2025 season.  The Tigers were ranked at No. 125 out of 134 FBS teams overall. Only three Power Four teams were ranked behind the Tigers overall.

The Turnover Margin

The first thing Connelly looked at was the turnover margin for each team. The Tigers finish -9 in the turnover battle, which ranked 120th in FBS. Their expected turnover margin was just -2.3 which was ranked at 86th.

However, a lot of these turnovers were preventable. The Tigers fumbled the ball a total of 15 times, losing it nine times. They also threw a total of 13 interceptions from three different passers during the season. 

A major difference is that no one who threw an interception for Auburn will be on the team in 2025. Starting quarterback Payton Thorne graduated and signed as an undrafted free agent with the Cincinnati Bengals a few hours later. He was responsible for nine of the interceptions. 

Backup quarterback Hank Brown threw three interceptions and has since transferred to Iowa. The final interception was thrown by running back Jarquez Hunter who was drafted just a few weeks ago by the Los Angeles Rams.

New transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold, even in his worst season, tossed just three picks all season long. 

Close Games

The second thing that Connelly looked at were close games each participated in. The Tigers were ranked dead last out of 134th after finishing 1-3 in one-score games with their only win being a 43-41 upset over No. 15 Texas A&M in four overtimes at home. Their -2.8 expected wins is the lowest of any FBS team.

Again, the expectation should be much higher for the Tigers in 2025. 

Injuries

The final thing that Connelly looked at was Injuries. This is one of those things where you’d have to have a bit of “luck”, for lack of a better word. While injuries will always happen, an abnormal number of injuries could lead to a lack of success.

The Tigers in this case, actually weren’t really hit by the injury-bug this past season. They were ranked in a tie for 24th with Kansas and Houston for the ratio of starters playing in every game at 1.86. However, while they may have had a starter playing in every game, they also were starting several young players every game. This may have had to do with their lack of success at 5-7. 

Players like Kaleb Harris and Demarcus Riddick started as freshmen and were called to be leaders early in their collegiate careers. While it didn't translate well then, it may very well help this year as they will already know what they are doing and as they can help young players acclimate this season.   

According to Connelly, Auburn has the highest chance to make a major turnaround come the fall. They had a better success rate anywhere from 38.5% to 44.7% than their opponents. Unfortunately when you turnover the ball and take 27 sacks at crucial points, the success rate goes down. With several transfer players coming in, the offense could be sparked to ways that the Auburn Freeze Era hasn’t seen yet.