Lindsay's Locks for Week Eight of College Football
Made money last week, just not all the money. QB Jaxson Dart (UNDER 214.5 passing yards) didn't need to throw the ball a ton as Ole Miss ran all over Auburn, WR Dorian Singer (OVER 63.5 receiving yards) thrived as Arizona played from behind all game, and RB Devin Neal of Kansas (OVER 72.5 rushing yards) beat his number. Travis Dye of USC (OVER 82.5 rushing yards) was the one that hurt, though; he only got eleven carries in a passing-dominated shootout that saw a combined 87 passing attempts as Utah knocked off USC 43-42 and missed his number by a mere seven yards.
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Week Eight's picks
Pick #1: Georgia Southern QB Kyle Vantrease OVER 307.5 Passing Yards
Yes, it's a lot of yards. Yes, Georgia Southern's historically been a triple-option team. But the transition is working, and we're banking on the Buffalo transfer to keep it going. Georgia Southern's 3rd in the country in passing yards (358.9), and Vantrease's surpassed this number in five of his seven games on the season, including dropping 578 against James Madison last week. Combine that with Georgia Southern being road dogs on Saturday and you've got a formula to put up some big boy numbers through the air.
Pick #2: South Carolina RB MarShawn Lloyd OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards
South Carolina's a home dog against Texas A&M Saturday night despite questions about who will play QB for the Aggies, but Lloyd going to be the real star of this game. He put 110 yards against Kentucky's stout rush defense AND no one else got more than five carries in the contest, so now he gets to face off against the SEC's 13th ranked rush defense (190 yards per game) in Texas A&M as the undisputed #1 running back? Sign me up.
Pick #3: BYU QB Jaren Hall OVER 260.5 Passing Yards
Let's pick on Liberty a bit, shall we? Wake Forest's Sam Hartman did, to the tune of 325 yards. Old Dominion's Hayden Wolff did, to the tune of 297 yards. Meanwhile, Jaren Hall's put up at least 260 yards through the air in four of his last five games, including three games over 300 yards (Arkansas, Wyoming, and Oregon). Seems to be common sense, right?
Pick #4: Oregon QB Bo Nix OVER 2.5 Pass+Rush+Rec TDs
Okay, Bo Nix is ACTUALLY a dark horse for the Heisman right now - he sits at 14th on the board as of Friday morning, at +5000 odds. He's also feasted on everybody not named Georgia this season, with 20 touchdowns on the season (12 passing, 8 running). Did you know he's accounted for at least three touchdowns in every game this year but the opener against Georgia? Against undefeated UCLA, Bo Nix is going to do Bo Nix things, and we're gonn bank on it.
Pick #5: Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins OVER 91.5 Rushing Yards
Let's pick on some bad rush defenses - LSU has given up more than five yards a carry in the last two weeks, and Auburn fans know first hand what Lane Kiffin can scheme up with Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans on the ground - they ran the ball more than 60 times on Auburn for 448 yards, including over five yards a carry from both backs. Judkins is averaging over 107 yards over his last four games, even with the 46-yd clunker to Vandy where Jaxson Dart threw for 448 yards. Go with the hot hand.
Bet: Georgia Southern QB Kyle Vantrease OVER 307.5 Passing Yards, South Carolina RB MarShawn Lloyd OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards, BYU QB Jaren Hall OVER 260.5 Passing Yards, Oregon QB Bo Nix OVER 2.5 Pass+Rush+Rec TDs, Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins OVER 91.5 Rushing Yards
Odds options:
Flex Play: 5 of 5 correct = 10x, 4 correct = 2x, 3 correct = 0.4x
Final Thoughts:
Biggest concerns here is Oregon getting slowed down by UCLA (although I don't think it's likely) and Judkins either splitting carries too much with Zach Evans or Jaxson Dart, but I like this slate.
Enjoy the games, everyone.
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