Lindsay's Locks for Week Nine of College Football
Made money last week, just not all the money. All the Power 5 players came through for us - Bo Nix had himself a DAY with five touchdowns (easily beating his combined pass+rush+rec TDs number of 2.5), Quinshon Judkins ran through LSU like...well, something through a tin horn (watch the video if you need a reminder of the greatest coaching quote in college football history), and MarShawn Lloyd had his way on the ground with the Texas A&M defense. But Georgia State QB Kyle Vantrease missed his passing yardage figure by, oh, 130 yards and so we only got a partial payout. Let's get back on this horse and be Green Goblins this week.
(I love that Nick Saban remembers that it was more than three hundred rushing yards allowed in that game, but not if they won the national title that year. Dude's just built different.)
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Week Nine's picks
Pick #1: Oregon QB Bo Nix OVER 295.5 Combined Passing and Rushing Yards
Bo's beaten this combined number four of the last five weeks, sometimes because of a big rushing performance (141 yards against Stanford), sometimes through the air (428 against Washington State). This is one of the few times that the combined number is higher than the standalone rushing and passing numbers, so let's count on Bo Nix continue the Heisman campaign with a great game against Cal.
Pick #2: UGA WR Ladd McConkey OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards
This is the matchup formerly known as The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, but McConkey's beaten this number in four of his last five games and Florida has had issues stopping slot receivers. Let's bank on Bennett-to-McConkey manifesting a few times in this one.
Pick #3: Florida State QB Jordan Travis OVER 275.5 Combined Passing and Rushing Yards
Let's pick on Georgia Tech a bit - this is not a good football team. Yes, they're playing more inspired football for interim coach Brent Key, but they're at a definite talent disadvantage here against a QB that's beaten this number four times in the last five games. Look for the Seminoles to get it done again.
Pick #4: Texas A&M RB Devon Achane OVER 95.5 Rushing Yards
Yes, Texas A&M's offense has been disappointing this season - I don't think they've scored over 24 points on anyone this year (ed: They beat Sam Houston 31-0 to open the season, if we're counting FCS paycheck games), but Ole Miss doesn't exactly have what you would call a "good" defense - they're 87th in opponent rushing yards allowed and let Auburn pick up 301 on the ground, including 179 from one Cartavious Bigsby. Look for Achane to get his as Texas A&M tried to get the offense going against a gettable opponent in Kyle Field.
Pick #5: Kentucky QB Will Levis OVER 18.5 Pass Completions
Levis is probably going to be playing from behind against Top 5 Tennessee, meaning lots of passing. He's met or exceeded 17 pass completions in four of his last five games, and so one or two extra completions in lieu of handoffs pushes this over into the green. Alternative option here if you want it is 250.5 passing yards - he's 2/4 on it in his last four games.
Bet: Oregon QB Bo Nix OVER 295.5 Combined Passing and Rushing Yards, UGA WR Ladd McConkey OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards, Florida State QB Jordan Travis OVER 275.5 Combined Passing and Rushing Yards, Texas A&M RB Devon Achane OVER 95.5 Rushing Yards, Kentucky QB Will Levis OVER 18.5 Pass Completions
Odds options:
Flex Play: 5 of 5 correct = 10x, 4 correct = 2x, 3 correct = 0.4x
Final Thoughts:
Biggest concerns here are Georgia handling their business on the ground against the Gators or Levis leaving the game with an aggravation of his shoulder he injured earlier in the season, but I like the slate overall.
Enjoy the games, everyone.
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