Lindsay's Locks for Week Ten of College Football
SO CLOSE to being Green Goblins last week, folks. Bo Nix's 295.5 combined yards? SMASHED it with 471 versus Cal. Florida State QB Jordan Travis's combined 275.5 versus Georgia Tech? CRUSHED it with 389. But Tennessee got us, this time holding Kentucky QB Will Levis to SEVEN pass completions in their destruction of Kentucky and we only went 4 for 5.
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Week Ten's picks
Pick #1: Oregon QB Bo Nix OVER 310.5 Combined Passing and Rushing Yards
Bo Nix has never not come through for us, so I'm glad I just jinxed that here. The Auburn transfer's continuing his Heisman campaign with a matchup against Colorado, and his combined number's at 310.5. Unless Oregon gets up huge early and he gets lifted, I feel good about his getting here through either carrying the ball or dropping dimes to his wideouts.
Pick #2: Michigan State QB Payton Thorne UNDER 195.5 Pass Yards
We don't like doing unders on Lindsay's Locks, but Mother Nature's conspiring to give us this one. Not only is Thorne facing an uphill battle against the Fighting Illini's fantastic defense (one that's top six in Line Yards, Pass Success, and Coverage and has the lowest allowed completion percentage in the country), but there's also winds of over 20 mph expected in the forecast. Don't forget to tip your local NOAA office when you cash this.
Pick #3: Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson OVER 85.5 Rushing Yards
Let's pick on Northwestern a bit - their tackling is atrocious and they're 110th in rushing yards allowed per game, with an average of 186.4. Henderson's been splitting time with Miyan Williams, who injured his hand last week and is questionable in this game. Also, another weather game, as there's projected to be sustained winds of 25 mph at kickoff in Evanston. Sounds like the perfect storm to rack up yardage on the ground.
Pick #4: USC RB Travis Dye OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards
When this hits, thank Bo Nix. Last week, Oregon's top three running backs combined for 10 catches for 176 yards and two touchdowns. Cal's not a great pass coverage team (just outside of the bottom 25) and also, like Northwestern, aren't great tacklers. At the same time, Dye already averages 22 receiving yards per game and has multiple catches in every game but one. Seems pretty obvious, right?
Pick #5: Texas RB Bijan Robinson OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards
We're RB heavy this week, and I'm okay with that. Kansas State is great at defending receivers out of the backfield, and so let's assume Steve Sarkesian can capitalize on that using one of the best RBS in college football.
Bet: Oregon QB Bo Nix OVER 310.5 Combined Passing and Rushing Yards, Michigan State QB Payton Thorne UNDER 195.5 Pass Yards, Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson OVER 85.5 Rushing Yards, USC RB Travis Dye OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards, Texas RB Bijan Robinson OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards
Odds options:
Flex Play: 5 of 5 correct = 10x, 4 correct = 2x, 3 correct = 0.4x
Final Thoughts:
Biggest concerns here are Oregon just running the ball down Colorado's throat with the backs or Bijan Robinson having himself a day on the ground and not needing to pass, but I like the slate overall.
Enjoy the games, everyone.
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