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    I love how Tank Bigsby was used in the offense at A-Day

    Auburn football cracks top 10 in ESPN's preseason FPI

    The Tigers are projected to be a solid team in 2022.
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    Auburn Tigers
    Auburn Tigers

    Every single year, ESPN's FPI does something different that makes you scratch your head.

    For those who don't know, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

    My assumption is that the formula works best during the season, because preseason projections are usually off. For instance, Mississippi State was one of the highest-ranked teams in the preseason FPI last year before ESPN made a correction. This season, Auburn has found its way inside the top 10 despite going 6-7 last year and entering the offseason having no clue who QB1 is.

    According to the FPI, the Tigers will be 13.9 points better than the average Division I team on a neutral field. For anyone wondering, the most average team (in terms of talent, expected point margin, etc.) 2022 is projected to be UAB.

    Here are some of Auburn's other projections within the FPI.

    Projected record: 7.4-4.6

    Auburn Tigers quarterback Holden Geriner (12) and Auburn Tigers quarterback Zach Calzada (10) talk on the sideline during the A-Day spring practice at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, April 9, 2022.

    Even though the Tigers are a preseason top 10 team, they are still projected to go 7-5. This makes sense, considering Auburn's strength of schedule is first nationally.

    Chance to go undefeated: 0.0%

    Sep 25, 2021; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers receiver Shedrick Jackson (11) celebrates with receiver Ze'Vian Capers (80) after scoring a touchdown late in the fourth quarter against the Georgia State Panthers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

    ESPN's FPI says there is no chance Auburn goes undefeated.

    Chance to get to 6 wins: 91.9%

    Sep 11, 2021; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers wide receiver Malcolm Johnson Jr. (16) makes a catch as Alabama State Hornets defensive back Rodney Echols (25) defends during the third quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

    Vegas currently has Auburn's win total set at 5. However, ESPN believes there is a very good chance Auburn surpasses that and is bowl eligible.

    Chance to win the SEC West: 2.5%

    Auburn tight end Landen King (40) makes a one-handed grab to score a touchdown despite Alabama defensive back Brian Branch (14) holding his left arm during the first overtime of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 27, 2021, in Auburn, Ala. The touchdown sent the game to a second overtime, a game won in four overtimes by Alabama, 24-22.

    Auburn has the worst odds of any team inside the top 20 of winning their own division.

    Chance to win the SEC

    Auburn offensive lineman Calvin Ashley (70) celebrates after the Iron Bowl NCAA football game between Auburn and Alabama on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2017, in Auburn, Ala. Auburn defeated Alabama 26-14. Auburn Alabama Football

    Auburn also has the worst odds of any team inside the top 20 to win their conference.

    Chance to make the College Football Playoff: 2.7

    Dec 28, 2021; Birmingham, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers cheerleaders let the flags wave after a score against Houston Cougars during the second half of the 2021 Birmingham Bowl at Protective Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

    Auburn has a better shot of making the playoff than they do to win the SEC West.

    Chance of making the National Championship: 0.8%

    Alabama Crimson Tide face off against the Auburn Tigers during the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Nov. 27, 2021. Auburn Tigers leads Alabama Crimson Tide 7-0 at halftime.

    Auburn has less than a one percent chance to make the title game according to ESPN. Those are the 12th best odds nationally.

    Chance of winning the National Championship: 0.2%

    Auburn Tigers head coach Bryan Harsin during warm ups before Auburn Tigers take on Alabama Crimson Tide at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Nov. 27, 2021.

    Auburn has the 10th best odds to win the National Championship.

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