Lindsay's Locks for Week Four of college football
Stop me if you've heard this before, but we took some bad beats last week.
Kentucky's Will Levis and FSU's Treshaun Ward DESTROYED their predictions, but Alabama QB Bryce Young had a deep completion overturned and Indiana RB Shaun Shivers couldn't punch one in the endzone against Western Kentucky. Still came out of the weekend with SOME money, but didn't hit it big.
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Week Four's picks
Pick #1: Kentucky QB Will Levis - OVER 260.5 Passing Yards
We're gonna keep going back to this well. Kentucky's had some offensive line issues in recent weeks, but that didn't stop Levis from POPPING off last week for 377 yards through the air against Youngstown State. Northern Illinois comes to town in the final paycheck game before Kentucky starts conference play, and the Huskies have allowed over 280 passing yards per game this season - which was Eastern Illinois, Tulsa, and Vanderbilt. Hammer the over here.
Pick #2: Texas RB Bijan Robinson - OVER 110.5 Rushing Yards
Bijan Robinson might be the best running back in the country, and he showed it against UTSA last week, putting up 180+ yards and 3 TDs on the ground. Texas Tech's defense allows only 83 yards per game on the ground, but that's skewed by their opening week blowout of Murray State and the Houston OT shootout - all three P5 lead backs they've faced picked up at least 4 YPC against them. Robinson had 130 total yards on Alabama, I think he can get 111 against Texas Tech. Slight risk, but scared money don't make money.
Pick #3: UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson - UNDER 244.5 Passing Yards
Look, Colorado football is BAD. Yes they've played TCU, Air Force, and Minnesota, but they were still outscored 128-20. Take out the Air Force option attack and they've still allowed over 300 rushing yards per game. UCLA should easily dominate this one, and the last time they dominated a team - Alabama State in week two - DTR only attempted 11 passes for 101 yards before being pulled from the game for his backups. He won't need to play long in this one, either.
Pick #4: Louisville QB Malik Cunningham - OVER 207.5 Passing Yards
Look, we've picked on Louisville in this column for two weeks now, and deservedly so: They've not been great! But the offense is finally coming together, so let's flip it around and back them this week. They dropped almost 500 yards of offense in a close loss vs Florida State last week, including a combined 370 from QB Malik Cunningham. They may not throw a lot of TDs, but they can move the ball up and down the field, and Cunningham has increased his yardage totals every week as he's gotten more comfortable with these receivers. USF allowed 250+ passing yards to both BYU's Jaren Hall and Howard's Quinton Williams - I think Cunningham can break 207.5
Pick #5: Auburn RB Tank Bigsby - OVER 0.5 Rushing TDs
There's a lot more Auburn options on Prize Picks this week, but none of them instill a ton of confidence when you're breaking in a new starting QB. WR Shedrick Jackson O/U 42.5 receiving yards, TE John Samuel Shenker O/U 21.5 receiving yards, WR Ja'Varrius Johnson O/U 40.5 receiving yards are all tough to pull the trigger on when you're looking at a new QB getting his first career start in Robby Ashford, so let's focus on the backs. Tank's got every conceivable option out there - rushing yards (82.5), receiving yards (12.5), combined yards (94.5), fantasy score (17 points) - but let's go with touchdowns. Tank has three TDs on the season, with Mercer giving up one and San Jose State allowing him to score twice. In the only Power 5 matchup Missouri's played this year, Kansas State, they allowed 4 touchdowns and 235 yards on the ground to the running backs (and Kansas State could only manage four rushing scores combined between South Dakota and Tulane). Look for Tank to put at least one in as the Tigers look to lean on the running game.
Bet: Kentucky QB Will Levis OVER 260.5 Passing Yards, Texas RB Bijan Robinson OVER 110.5 Rushing Yards, UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson UNDER 244.5 Passing Yards, Louisville QB Malik Cunningham OVER 207.5 Passing Yards, and Auburn RB Tank Bigsby OVER 0.5 Rushing TDs
Odds options:
Flex Play: 5 of 5 correct = 10x, 4 correct = 2x, 3 correct = 0.4x
Final Thoughts:
Touchdown props are always a little risky, but Auburn doesn't win if Tank Bigsby only touches the ball nine times. UCLA could always hit a bunch of deep balls to push this over the number, or Cunningham could run for 200+ on USF, but I feel good about taking at least four of these five.
Enjoy the games, everyone.
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