Lindsay's Locks for Week One in College Football
Some bad beats last week, with Vandy so thoroughly dominating Hawaii on the ground that Mike Wright only needed 13 completions to hang 63 on the Rainbow Warriors and an atrocious Nebraska squad getting in (and losing) a shootout to Northwestern. But, it's a new week, so let's get after it.
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Friday's picks
Pick #1: Old Dominion QB Hayden Wolff - OVER 1 Passing TD
Wolff is a big-bodied (6-5, 235lb) redshirt sophomore who beat out Notre Dame transfer Brendan Clark and former starter DJ Mack for the starting job. He played in ten games last year, going 159-253 for 1,933yds & 10 TDs. ODU returns ten starters and VT has a weak pass rush. Expect Wolff to have plenty of time to find his receivers in this one.
Pick #2: Illinois RB Chase Brown - OVER 94.5 Rushing Yards
Fresh off of a 1000+ yd campaign in 2021, Brown picked up where he left off last week against Wyoming, dropping 151 yards and two touchdowns on only 19 carries against the Cowboys to go along with 3 catches for 16 yards and another score. He tends to pick up yards in bunches - he had two games last year (Penn State and Charlotte) with over 200 yards on the ground and averaged almost 8 YPC last week. Look for him to terrorize first-year defensive coordinator Chad Wilt and the Indiana defense on Friday night.
Saturday's picks
Pick #3: Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba - UNDER 115.5 Receiving Yards
The biggest risk of the weekend on this one: Ohio State QB CJ Stroud is expected to be a Heisman favorite, and he and JSN connected for 15 catches, 347 yards, and 3 TDs against Utah in the Rose Bowl. Consider this a vote of confidence in new Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman, who has had all summer to game-plan how to stop this passing offense. With the loss of Chris Olave to the NFL and the talent in the defensive backfield for Notre Dame, we're shooting our shot.
Pick #4: Alabama QB Bryce Young - OVER 3 Passing TDs
Face it, Alabama completely outmatches Utah State in every single way - Bryce Young should be able to carve up this overmatched secondary, and he'll have a shiny new toy in Georgia transfer Jermaine Burton lined up wide to throw to. Don't overthink it - take the over.
Sunday's pick
Pick #5: Florida State RB Treshaun Ward - OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Remember last week, when we assured you that Ward would break 60.5 yards on Duquesne and he popped off for 127 (and two scores) at 9.1 a carry? He only got eleven carries in that game, because the backups were in so early. Much tougher opponent this week in Brian Kelly's LSU squad, but I'm confident in the volume getting us over the mark. LSU was 56th in rushing yards per game allowed last year, and I think it'll be close enough for long enough for Ward to get his.
Bet: QB Hayden Wolff OVER 1.0 Pass TD, Illinois RB Chase Brown OVER 94.5 Rush Yards, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba UNDER 115.5 Rec Yards, QB Bryce Young OVER 3.0 Pass TDs, RB Treshaun Ward OVER 60.5 Rush Yards
Odds options:
Flex Play: 5 of 5 correct = 10x, 4 correct = 2x, 3 correct = 0.4x
Final Thoughts:
I'm least confident on the Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Treshaun Ward picks, but you have to risk it to get the biscuit. Freeman is a defensive mastermind that has been rumored to revitalize the program there in South Bend, and Ward delivered for us last week so we're going to ride the hot hand.
Enjoy the games, everyone.
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