Week one SEC football predictions: An undefeated weekend for the conference?

Could the SEC go 14-0 in week one?

Author:
Lance Dawe
Publish date:
Sep 1, 2022 12:28 PM EDT

In this story:

Mississippi State Bulldogs

South Carolina Gamecocks

Florida Gators

Missouri Tigers

Vanderbilt Commodores

Let's get it.

Week one of college football has finally arrived (week zero truthers, rise up).

The SEC will officially kick off the 2022 season with a handful of interesting non-conference matchups, including the only game that a Southeastern Conference team is not favored in this week (shoutout Florida).

Last year, I predicted the entire SEC season and picked 77.8% of the games correctly. It's 80% or bust this season.

Here are my predictions for week one.

Tennessee vs Ball State

Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) and Tennessee running back Jabari Small (2) celebrate a touchdown during a football game against South Alabama at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn. on Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021. Kns Tennessee South Alabam Football Bp — © Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI Prediction: 95.1% (Tennessee)

Spread: -35.5

My Prediction: The Vols run away with a victory in week one against a Ball State squad that will be breaking in a new quarterback.

Tennessee 49, Ball State 17

Missouri vs Louisiana Tech

Oct 30, 2021; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Missouri Tigers defensive back Martez Manuel (3) celebrates with Missouri Tigers defensive back Jalani Williams (4) after an interception during the second half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports — Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Prediction: 77.1% (Missouri)

Spread: -20.5

My Prediction: Unless Brady Cook completely falls apart, Missouri will win this game. Skip Holtz is out at LA Tech, and the expectations are low for a team that gave up 34 points per game a season ago.

Missouri 37, Louisiana Tech 20

Texas A&M vs Sam Houston State

Oct 16, 2021; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Devon Achane (6) celebrates with wide receiver Ainias Smith (0) after scoring a touchdown against the Missouri Tigers during the second half at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports — Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Prediction: 98.4% (A&M)

Spread: N/A

My Prediction: SHSU is one of the best FCS programs out there.

Texas A&M is (supposedly) one of the best FBS programs out there.

Aggies control the line of scrimmage and Haynes King does enough to get the victory.

Texas A&M 45, Sam Houston State 10

Georgia vs Oregon

Georgia inside linebacker Nakobe Dean (17) celebrates with Georgia outside linebacker Nolan Smith (4) after getting a sack during the second half of an NCAA college football game between Arkansas and Georgia in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021. Georgia won 37-0. News Joshua L Jones Syndication Online Athens — © Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI Prediction: 91.5% (Georgia)

Spread: -17

My Prediction: Auburn QB transfer Bo Nix is 0-3 against Georgia. There aren't enough elite skill position players on the Ducks' squad to get this win. Bulldogs cruise.

Georgia 30, Oregon 13

Arkansas vs Cincinatti

Sep 25, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks defensive back Jalen Catalon (1) celebrates during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports — Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Prediction: 59.6% (Arkansas)

Spread: -6.5

My Prediction: This is a well coached Cincinnati team that will lose by double digits to a Razorback squad that is hitting its stride.

Arkansas 34, Cincinatti 24

Ole Miss vs Troy

Mississippi Head Coach Lane Kiffin returns to Neyland Stadium before an SEC football game between Tennessee and Ole Miss in Knoxville, Tenn. on Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021. Kns Tennessee Ole Miss Football — © Calvin Mattheis/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI Prediction: 88.9% (Ole Miss)

Spread: -21.5

My Prediction: Ole Miss covers regardless of who is starting at quarterback. Troy does not have enough offensive firepower to make this a competitive game.

Ole Miss 41, Troy 17

Florida vs Utah

Nov 13, 2021; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators wide receiver Rick Wells (12), wide receiver Jordan Pouncey (86), running back Dameon Pierce (27) and teammates celebrate after beating the Samford Bulldogs at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports — Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Prediction: 52.1% (Florida)

Spread: +3

My Prediction: Utes do similar things to Florida that they did to Oregon twice last season: establish the line of scrimmage, move at their own pace, and win. Florida will find ways to keep it close, but the Utes get the victory.

Florida 22, Utah 27

Kentucky vs Miami (OH)

Oct 2, 2021; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. (24) runs into the endzone for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Florida Gators at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports — Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Prediction: 93.3% (Kentucky)

Spread: -16

My Prediction: The Wildcats are without star running back Chris Rodriguez, but still rush for over 200 yards in a sound win.

Kentucky 38, Miami (OH) 13

Auburn vs Mercer

Auburn quarterback TJ Finley (1) rolls away from Alabama pressure during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 27, 2021, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt) — AP Photo/Vasha Hunt

ESPN FPI Prediction: 99.2% (Auburn)

Spread: -31.5

My Prediction: Over/under 300 rushing yards?

Auburn compiled 680 during their first two games of the 2021 season. They should control the ground here.

Mercer compiled 63 points and over 600 yards of total offense, which may scare some. May everyone be reminded that the Bears scored 69 points in their season-opener a year ago and scored 14 against Alabama a week later.

Auburn *should* win and cover. Keep an eye on TJ Finley's performance.

Auburn 54, Mercer 13

Vanderbilt vs Elon

Vanderbilt quarterback Mike Wright (5) hands the ball off to Vanderbilt running back Rocko Griffin (24) during an SEC conference game between Tennessee and Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn. on Saturday, Nov. 27, 2021. Kns Tennessee Vanderbilt Football — © Calvin Mattheis/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI Prediction: 95.8% (Vanderbilt)

Spread: N/A

My Prediction: All aboard the Clark Lea train. After destroying Hawaii in week zero, things keep rolling vs Elon.

Vanderbilt 40, Elon, 17

South Carolina vs Georgia State

South Carolina Gamecocks running back Kevin Harris (20) avoids a tackle from North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Tony Grimes (20)during the Duke s Mayo Bowl at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Thursday, December 30, 2021. Jg Mayobowl 123021 046 — © JESSICA GALLAGHER/ Staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI Prediction: 82.5% (South Carolina

Spread: -12.5

My Prediction: This is a really tough game for USC.

Georgia State is very well coached, returns a solid amount of production on both sides of the ball, and gave Auburn everything they had last season.

I think the Gamecocks win but State covers.

South Carolina 35, Georgia State 24

Alabama vs Utah State

Oct 23, 2021; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Jameson Williams (1) and wide receiver John Metchie III (8) and quarterback Bryce Young (9) celebrate after a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports — Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Prediction: 99.3% (Alabama)

Spread: -41.5

My Prediction: That's a dangerous spread. However, Utah State did not look particularly impressive in their week zero game, and Alabama is Alabama.

Watch the young Bama receivers in this matchup.

Alabama 61, Utah State 14

Mississippi State vs Memphis

FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS - NOVEMBER 06: Will Rogers #2 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs drops back to pass in the second half of a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on November 06, 2021 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Razorbacks defeated the Bulldogs 31-28. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) — Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

ESPN FPI Prediction: 77.3% (Mississippi State)

Spread: -16

My Prediction: This line opened at -8. Do not bet on this game. Mike Leach is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get (despite knowing exactly what the scheme is).

Mississippi State 30, Memphis 21