Why This Analyst Believes Auburn vs Baylor ‘Could Be Game of the Week’

The Auburn Tigers are set to kick off their season in just two short days, and analysts all around the country are getting their predictions in for what could be a program-defining matchup for both teams. However, Josh Pate’s prediction stands out for a very specific reason: he thinks this game may be quite a bit closer than many are giving Baylor credit for.

“Baylor versus Auburn could be the game of the week,” Pate said. “This, one thousand percent, has fourth-quarter chaos, game of week potential written all over it… I don’t have a strong lean here, but I’m gonna go Auburn to win the game, but I do go Baylor to cover [-6.5].”

Pate went in depth on exactly why he is predicting this game to be so close, but in essence, it seems to lie on the shoulders of new Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway, who was once one of the top prospects in the country, but has struggled throughout the first two years of his collegiate career.

One unit he is confident in, though, is Auburn’s defense, so Lagway will need a lot more than an above-average performance if he wants to take down the Tigers to open his Baylor career.

“In a game like this, I think I can trust Auburn’s defense,” Pate said. “But I do think there is something sneaky about Baylor that makes this really tight and a fourth-quarter game.”

The Bears certainly have a new approach to the 2026 season with so much churn on both the roster and the coaching staff, particularly on defense, where Kansas State’s Joe Klanderman joined as the defensive coordinator this past offseason.

Golesh, in a press conference, talked in depth about the matchups he has coached against Klanderman, so there is some familiarity there, but with a new-look Baylor defense after the 2025 offseason, the Tigers still may not be exactly sure what to expect. It is only week one, after all.

A large reason why this game could be so close is its significance for both programs, as the Tigers are looking to get back on their feet after two failed coaching hires, while Baylor’s head coach, Dave Aranda, is desperately trying to prove that he still deserves the job out in Waco.

As such, this is a must-win game for both teams, so Pate’s prediction that the final score may be a bit closer than the bigger margins that the Auburn On SI staff have predicted may very well come true, but the general consensus remains that the Auburn Tigers are still favorites to open their first Alex Golesh-led season 1-0.

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