Baylor Opens Big 12 Tournament Against Arizona State With Tough Path Ahead
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The Big 12 regular season is officially over, and the Bears finished 13th in the conference with a dismal 6-12 record in Big 12 play. It's the worst conference play record Baylor has had since the 2006-2007 season, when the team went 4-12 in conference play. This record earns the Bears a 13-seed in the Big 12 Tournament, which begins on March 10th in Kansas City.
A historic #Big12MBB season has led us to this moment.
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) March 8, 2026
The OFFICIAL 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament Bracket is here 👀 pic.twitter.com/tkKZYPWggt
This 13-seed lands Scott Drew's team a first-round bout with Arizona State, which finished 7-11 in Big 12 play. Baylor already faced the Sun Devils earlier this season at Foster Pavilion, a game which the Bears won 73-68. This February matchup was the lone game between the two, so no doubt the Arizona State will be looking for revenge after dropping a close one in Waco.
If Baylor were to win against the Sun Devils, they would face fifth-seeded Iowa State on March 11th. Iowa State has a fantastic record over the past few years in the Big 12 tournament, partly because they have been a consistently great team, but also because they garner a fantastic traveling contingent, which creates a home-court advantage for the Cyclones.
If Baylor were to steal a win from Iowa State, they would then play the next morning on March 12th against Texas Tech, who finished 12-6 in the conference. Although the Red Raiders have been without star player JT Toppin since February 17th, they have still shown that they are a serious Elite 8 contender. They are 3-2 since losing Toppin, with a win at Iowa State mixed in. This would be a tough but manageable outing for Baylor.
If Baylor were to win against the Red Raiders, they would most likely face the Arizona Wildcats on March 13th in the semifinal. Arizona has been impeccable this season. They won the conference by a margin of two games, going 16-2. The two games they lost this season were by three points and four points, as well. They have a mix of talented freshmen like Koa Peat and Brayden Burries alongside experienced guys like Motiejus Krivas and Jaden Bradley. The silver lining for Baylor if they do make it this far is that the Bears gave them a run for their money when the Wildcats visited Waco, with that game being a one-score game in the final minute.
If Baylor were to get through the gauntlet that is Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Arizona, they would be in the Big 12 Championship Tournament Final with a chance to gain an auto-bid into the NCAA Tournament. They would probably face Kansas or Houston in this Final, meaning Baylor would have to go on a four game win-streak against four ranked opponents for this to be reality.
I predict that Baylor does not do that, but Baylor has stepped up their game in the last few weeks, and I would not be surprised if the Bears pulled off at least one upset in Kansas City.
Jacob is a contributor for Baylor Bears On SI. A lifelong sports fan, he started writing game reactions and opinion pieces during Baylor football and basketball seasons, turning that hobby into a growing presence in sports media. He brings an authentic, fan-driven voice to his work and is excited to keep building his voice and breaking down the topics Baylor fans are talking about every day.
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