Baylor March Madness Resume Tracker: What Bears Need to Make NCAA Tournament

Baylor faces a steep climb to an at-large bid.

Dan Skillings with the Dunk in the non-conference early this season. | via Baylor Athletics

Obviously, if Baylor wins the Big 12 tournament, they will be granted an auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament, but what will it take for Baylor to get in as an at-large at this point? They have some bad losses on their resume. The losses against Memphis, Kansas State, and Cincinnati are really leaving the Bears with a massive mountain to climb in the Big 12 Tournament if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.

But mountains are meant to be climbed, and the Bears still have a long shot to make the tournament. They open the Big 12 tournament on March 10th with a game against Arizona State. They beat Arizona State at home earlier in the season, winning 73-68 in an electric Foster Pavilion. This game will be the first step in garnering an at-large bid. Beating Arizona State would go down as a Quad 2 win for the Bears, as Arizona State is currently ranked #67 in NET.

via @BaylorMBB on X

Baylor is currently #49 in NET Rankings with a 3-12 record against Quad 1 teams, a 5-3 record against Quad 2 teams, and a 7-0 record against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams. If Baylor were to win this game, they would then be 6-3 in Quad 2 games, with a chance to strengthen their Quad 1 record in the next round against Iowa State.

If Baylor were to win against Iowa State in Kansas City, this would significantly push the needle for the Bears. Iowa State currently sits at #8 in the NET. It would be a shocking win and by far the best win of the season for Scott Drew. Baylor would then push to 4-12 against Quad 1 teams and would potentially be a top 45 team in NET. At this point, Baylor would be in discussion as a possible bubble team, it would take some current bubble teams taking some bad losses for Baylor to slip in, even with the upset win against Iowa State.

Cam Carr with the dunk against St. Johns in Las Vegas | via @BaylorMBB on X

If Baylor were to win against Iowa State, it would face Texas Tech in the quarterfinal of the Big 12 tournament. Texas Tech currently sits at 15 in the NET ranking, so they would also qualify as a Quad 1 win. If Baylor were to steal another game here, I believe that they would be right there as one of the first four in. Two marquee wins in back-to-back games would certainly put them on the committee's radar. I believe this would get Baylor one of those 11-seed play-in games.

Although a tall task, it is certainly possible that Baylor qualifies for the NCAA Tournament. Baylor has only missed the tournament once since 2014, so this year was truly unprecedented for Scott Drew as he and his teams have been so consistently great. If Baylor were to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, it would once again be a moment of Scott Drew magic.