3 Predictions for Baylor vs. Iowa State: Can Baylor Win by Double Digits?
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Baylor welcomes Iowa State to McLane Stadium at 11 a.m. Saturday for the 100th Homecoming football game in Waco.
Both teams are coming off perhaps their best wins of the season and are trying to claw into the upper echelon of the conference. The Bears have had many erratic outcomes in this wild 2026 campaign, but here are three predictions for the early kick:
Lagway fully wins over Baylor fans
Junior quarterback DJ Lagway has been finding his groove on the road but has yet to put on a clinic in front of the home crowd. The last home game was a bitter loss to TCU, where the Bears' offense couldn't find the end zone.
Three weeks later, Lagway has another chance to gain the trust of the Baylor students and alumni on Homecoming.
The Iowa State defense has allowed six 30+ point games in the first half of their season. Lagway is set up for another high-caliber performance that he has already had a couple of on the road.
Baylor covers the spread
The Cyclones are coming off of their best performance of the season against Oklahoma State but are just 3-4-1 against the spread this season.
The Bears are 9.5-point favorites in the Homecoming game but should probably be even heavier favorites. The Iowa State offense tends to stall out against solid defenses. Scoring 10 points against BYU and just three against Arizona in back-to-back weeks.
The Baylor defense has been one of the most dominant units in the Big 12. The Bears allow just 15 points per game, a mark better than both BYU and Arizona. If the Baylor defense can play up to their standards, it will do most of the heavy lifting for an easy spread cover for the Bears.
Gavin Freeman goes for 110+ yards
Freeman has been Lagway's most consistent target of the season and has gone for over 100 yards in three of his last four games. The Lagway-Freeman connection has no reason to take a game off against Iowa State.
The Cyclone defense has allowed 390 yards per game. Expect Freeman to use the middle of the field and his yards after catch ability to rack up another triple-digit afternoon.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Bennett is an undergrad student at Baylor University, studying journalism on the sports track. He is from the DFW area and grew up playing and watching sports, which inspired him to pursue sports writing.
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