By The Numbers: Powerful Kansas State Rushing Attack Could Cause Fits for Baylor Bears
Anyone who has followed the Big 12 conference the last four or five years knows how much of a defensive turn the league has taken. With offensive-minded head coaches like Lincoln Riley and Kliff Kingsbury left, defensive masters like Dave Aranda and Brent Venables filled the void.
The numbers say Saturday's matchup featuring Aranda's Baylor bears and Chris Klieman's Kansas State Wildcats could look like a throwback with how these offenses can put up points, but maybe not so much with their passing tendencies.
Last week, the Bears and the Oklahoma Sooners were fairly evenly matched by the advanced statistics and with no huge disparities, the Bears held an advantage in just about every category. Klieman's Wildcats are a much better team than Oklahoma.
For one, Kansas State's offense is arguably the most effective offensive unit the Bears have played all season. The Wildcats have featured two different starting quarterbacks and yet they are top 10 in the entire country of play efficiency. It's a scary prospect for defenses when the offense they are going against is fairly one-dimensional with a struggling passing game (last in the Big 12 with just 201 passing yards per game) and still executes positive plays nearly every time they snap the ball.
Within that, it's no surprise they are fourth in the nation in terms of effective rush, and running back Deuce Vaughn has had field days against the Bears the last two years, combining for 230 rushing yards in his last two matchups with Baylor.
Unfortunately for the Bears, their defense ranks just 37th nationally in opponent yards per rush. Fortunately for them, though, Kansas State ranks a lowly 66th in that category, and the Bears have a similar offensive attack to the Wildcats and have, statistically, a much more capable throwing quarterback.
Neither quarterback has too much confidence throwing downfield, though, as Baylor's Blake Shapen ranks 40th nationally with 8.1 yards per attempt and Adrian Martinez sits nearly 40 spots below his counterpart at seven yards per attempt.
Probably due to their offensive structures and willingness to put the game in their quarterback's hands, neither of these teams are stellar on third down, but one definitely has an advantage. The Bears are 30th in the country on third down, converting at a clip just over 44% (over 50% in the last three games) whereas the Wildcats are all the way down in 106th at just 32%. In a game where possessions will come at a premium, third-down plays could be a huge advantage for the Bears.
There are three phases to the game, and for as much flack as the bears got early on in the season, they have the seventh most efficient special teams unit in college football, basically meaning they don't leave points on the board because of the ineptness of their special teams, but rather adding points and gaining value because of how trustworthy their special teams unit is. Where some teams would have to go for it on 4th and 7 from the 30-yard line, kicker John Mayers can nail that 48-yard field goal and actually add points to a down and distance that most teams would surrender points and possession. Kansas State's special teams stink and are ranked 81st nationally in efficiency.
With a mediocre kicking game - kicker Chris Tennant hits just 64% of his field goal attempts and his long is only 37 yards, making him the 119th best kicker in FBS - and an almost non-existent pass game, putting them in a fourth down situation almost anywhere on the field should result in Baylor getting the ball back without surrendering any points. It seems simple to the point of cliche, but those extra points and decisions the Baylor defense can force because of their distinct advantage in special teams could decide the game.
The model has Kansas State as 3.5-point favorites on a neutral site but swings Baylor to slight 1.5-point favorites with the game being played at McLane Stadium.
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