How Close is Baylor to Competing for a Conference Championship?
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Baylor football is entering a crossroads season. They need to win and they need to win right now.
If they don’t, the consequences are going to be severe. There’s no secret at this point that Dave Aranda is sitting firmly on a boiling pot of water before this season begins. If Baylor does not bounce back with a good season, Aranda will be looking for another job, as will most of those around him.
Winning a conference championship is not what it used to be in the current age of college football. Once upon a time, winning a conference title was the most important accomplishment at a vast majority of schools.
As college sports have changed, so have priorities. Teams are now focused on getting into the college football playoff. Of course, winning the conference helps that cause, and can impact positioning in the annual end of season tournament.
How close is Baylor to winning a conference championship? That’s a loaded question.
Recapping 2025
Baylor finished 5-7 last year with a 3-6 conference record. They finished above just four teams, with Oklahoma State, Colorado, West Virginia, and UCF all finishing with worse records than the Bears.
Baylor’s season was highlighted with an overtime win over SMU in early September, but a multitude of disappointments that followed.
They lost games to TCU, Arizona, and Arizona State. They were able to salvage wins over Kansas State and an Oklahoma State team that finished the season winless in conference play.
Baylor chose to keep their coaching staff for one more run this year, and went to work on making some changes to the roster.
What’s new?
It’s hard to talk about what is new in Waco without looking squarely at the quarterback position. Baylor does not get a lot of five star recruits, but DJ Lagway was one prior to his commitment at Florida.
Lagway was the crown jewel of the transfer portal this offseason, and gives Baylor a high-upside option at quarterback that likely has a higher ceiling than Sawyer Robertson. He’s flanked by a potentially strong ground game, and an inexperienced receiving corps.
Defensively, the anchor is going to be defensive tackle Hosea Wheeler, with contributions from Travion Barnes and Garrick Ponder. Those three should be able to set a solid foundation on defense for Aranda and company.
How Close?
There is a path to Baylor competing for a conference championship in 2026. That’s not the most realistic outcome, but if Lagway lives up to his billing, anything is possible. The reality, however, is that anything that happens this year is likely setting the foundation for what Baylor hopes can be a big 2027.
Lagway would be in his second season with the team, his receivers and offensive line should be more solidified around him.
The answer to this question could change based on how this season goes as well. If Baylor stumbles to another below .500 season, the Bears will likely be turning over the coaching staff and losing some of its roster to the transfer portal.
That would kill any foundation that Baylor might set this season, and set them back at least two or three more years.
A bounce back season that saves Aranda’s job and keeps Lagway and the foundation of the roster in Waco? Baylor could be looking at a chance to compete at the top of the conference in 2027.
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Jacob Westendorf is a contributing writer for Baylor Bears on SI. He is also a writer covering the Green Bay Packers for Packers on SI. Westendorf graduated from University of Wisconsin-Green Bay where he earned a degree in communication with an emphasis in journalism and mass media. He worked in newspapers in Green Bay and Rockford, Illinois. He also interned at Packer Report for Bill Huber while earning his degree. In 2018, he became a staff writer for PackerReport.com, and a regular contributor on Packer Report's "Pack A Day Podcast." In 2020, he founded the media company Game On Wisconsin. In 2023, he rejoined Packer Central, which is part of Sports Illustrated Media Group.