Five Reasons to Believe Baylor Football Can Exceed Expectations in 2026
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Let’s cut through the weeds, shall we?
Baylor football is facing a huge season. If they have a bad year, Dave Aranda is going to be looking for another job, and there will be more turnover around a program that has been looking for a return to prominence.
College football has turned into a land of opportunity. Teams can yo-yo from the bottom of a conference to the top of their league in just one season. Could this year be the year for the Baylor Bears to exceed all expectations?
It’s not impossible, and here are five reasons why.
1. DJ Lagway
Let’s start with the obvious. Baylor did not have a quarterback problem a season ago. They did not even have a talent problem at this position. Sawyer Robertson was a good player, even if the team success did not necessarily follow.
That being said, DJ Lagway is a former five-star recruit. Those types of players do not come around often, and they especially do not attend Baylor for football that often.
Lagway is a legacy recruit. His father played for the Bears, and Lagway transferred from Florida this offseason to follow in his old man’s footsteps.
Lagway is not a finished product. He threw 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions a season ago. There is some development that will be required, but if nothing else Lagway should feel comfortable on campus. He’s been here before. It’s like his home.
The last two national championship-winning quarterbacks were also guys who transferred. It’s not a new thing in this day and age.
If Lagway can get settled in to Jake Spavital’s offense, the sky is the limit.
2. Ground Game
As much attention as has been paid to Baylor’s passing game and breaking in a new quarterback, Baylor does have a potential three-headed monster at running back. Dawson Pendergrass, Caden Knighten, and Michael Turner all offer a unique skill set to add to Baylor’s offense.
It’s an old school mentality, but few things make a quarterback’s life easier than a strong ground game. Pendergrass is likely to be the team’s bell cow and is one of the most important players on Baylor’s roster coming into 2026. He is not alone. Knighten is a polished pass catcher and has an ability as a pass blocker that will make him incredibly valuable when the Bears go to their no-huddle offense.
If nothing else, the comfort that those three men provide should give the Bears something to lean on if Lagway and the passing game are struggling to find their footing early in the season.
3. Revamped Defense
Most of the focus is on Baylor’s offense, and understandably so considering the addition of a new quarterback and the revamping of the passing game.
Defense, however, is where Dave Aranda made his name, excelling as a defensive coordinator for both LSU and Wisconsin before making his way to Waco.
Aranda did make two key additions this offseason. One we will talk about in our next point, but also Hosea Wheeler. Wheeler is looking to become an anchor in the middle of Baylor’s defense. He also has championship experience after spending last year with Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers.
Baylor’s offense is going to be under the microscope all season, but if they are unable to stop anybody, it may not matter how quickly their passing game develops.
4. Return of the King
Travion Barnes is one of the best potential stories on this roster. He entered training camp last year as one of the leaders in the locker room, and a guy who was a potential breakout player at middle linebacker.
Barnes missed most of last year with an injury he suffered after just four games in his new uniform.
Barnes should be back and ready to rock in the middle of Baylor’s defense this year, and Dave Aranda will look to get him in position to make a lot of plays.
5 If Indiana Can Do It…
This time last year, the future national champion Indiana Hoosiers were thought of as a feel-good story following their appearance in the 2024 College Football Playoff. They were going to fade into oblivion and be what Indiana had usually been for the duration of their existence.
Largely irrelevant. Did anyone expect Fernando Mendoza to win the Heisman Trophy? Did anyone expect them to beat Ohio State for the Big Ten title? What about steamrolling Alabama in the Rose Bowl? How about finishing that off with a national championship, capping off a season where they looked like the best team from start to finish?
The point is not that Baylor can win a national championship, but there are some ingredients that can play in Baylor’s favor. Some of them are laid out above. The other reality is that college football is a land of opportunity. Sure, traditional powers like Michigan and Ohio State won two of the last three national titles, but other non-traditional powers have made deep runs in the postseason. Arizona State made a run in 2024. Miami had been largely dormant before making its run to the doorstep of a national title a season ago.
Yes, they’re going to need breaks. Any team that wins a conference championship needs a break or two to go their way.
But if it can happen for Indiana, traditionally a bottom-feeder, it can happen for anyone.
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Jacob Westendorf is a contributing writer for Baylor Bears on SI. He is also a writer covering the Green Bay Packers for Packers on SI. Westendorf graduated from University of Wisconsin-Green Bay where he earned a degree in communication with an emphasis in journalism and mass media. He worked in newspapers in Green Bay and Rockford, Illinois. He also interned at Packer Report for Bill Huber while earning his degree. In 2018, he became a staff writer for PackerReport.com, and a regular contributor on Packer Report's "Pack A Day Podcast." In 2020, he founded the media company Game On Wisconsin. In 2023, he rejoined Packer Central, which is part of Sports Illustrated Media Group.