NCAA Tournament projections: Boise State remains on bubble entering Mountain West Tournament

Broncos, San Diego State to meet in de facto NCAA Tournament elimination game

Boise State Broncos guard RJ Keene II. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The loser of Thursday’s Mountain West Tournament quarterfinal between the Boise State and San Diego State men’s basketball teams will likely have to settle for the NIT. 

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released his latest NCAA Tournament projection Sunday night, and the bracket expert had the Aztecs (21-8, 14-6) among the last four teams in the field of 68. The Broncos (22-9, 14-6) were Lunardi’s first team out.

Boise State and San Diego State are set to meet for the third time this season at 3:30 p.m. Mountain time Thursday. San Diego State, the No. 4 seed for the MWC Tournament, swept the regular-season series between the teams.

After falling to Colorado State (22-9, 16-4) in their regular-season finale, the Broncos dropped to the No. 5 seed. 

“We’re going to have to play a lot better,” Boise State coach Leon Rice said of facing San Diego State. “They’re going to be a desperate team, we’re going to be a desperate team. We’re going to have to play a really, really good game to be on the floor with them.”

Star San Diego State center Magoon Gwath has not played since he suffered a hyperextended knee in the early minutes of a Feb. 22 loss at Utah State (25-6, 15-5). Gwath’s status for the MWC Tournament is unknown.

Gwath recorded a career-high six blocks in San Diego State’s mid-February blowout win over the Broncos. The 7-foot rim protector averages 8.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks — tied for seventh in the nation. 

“It makes you adjust every shot in there,” Boise State senior forward Tyson Degenart said of Gwath’s presence. “When you go in there with a guy like that, you’re a little more timid.”

MWC regular-season champion New Mexico (25-6, 17-3) received a No. 9 seed in Lunardi’s latest NCAA Tournament projection. Lunardi dropped Utah State to a 10 seed and listed the Aggies among the last four byes. 

San Diego State was awarded an 11 seed and a First Four matchup with Xavier. Lunardi had Colorado State, which enters the MWC Tournament on a seven-game winning streak, as the fourth team out. 

New Mexico, the reigning MWC Tournament champion, is the MWC’s only lock for the NCAA Tournament. 

A record six MWC teams received NCAA Tournament bids last season: Boise State, Colorado State, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State and Utah State. 

The Broncos have reached the NCAA Tournament in each of the past three seasons. 

MORE BOISE STATE NEWS & ANALYSIS

• NET Rankings update: Boise State among five Mountain West teams inside top 55

• Mountain West basketball tournament: Updated bracket, schedule, seeds

• ‘He’s a special player;’ What Leon Rice said after Nique Clifford torches Boise State for career-high 36 points

• The Nique Clifford Show: 3 takeaways from Colorado State’s comeback win over Boise State

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