Boise State's CFP odds jump after dominant win over Western Michigan

Broncos boast signature wins over Memphis, Western Michigan

Boise State's Matt Wagner. | Photo courtesy of Boise State Athletics

Boise State entered the weekend as the favorite to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff. 

The Broncos (3-1, 0-0 Pac-12) strengthened their CFP case on Saturday with a 32-7 near-shutout of Western Michigan (2-2, 0-0 MAC) on the road.

As of Sunday morning, Boise State’s odds to make the CFP are down to +140 on DraftKings Sportsbook, a significant move from +230 entering the week. The Broncos have the 12th-best odds nationally to reach the CFP, coming in behind Notre Dame (-1200), Miami (-1000), Texas (-600), Georgia (-600), Ohio State (-400), Indiana (-320), Florida (-146), LSU (-115), Texas Tech (-115), Alabama (+110) and Oregon (+125).

Boise State kicked off the 2026 season with a 34-27 loss at then-No. 2 Oregon, which turned around and suffered a stunning 39-31 defeat at Oklahoma State. The Ducks (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) have bounced back with two straight wins, including a 41-27 road victory over USC (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) on Saturday. 

After the Oregon game, Boise State has bagged victories over American Conference contender Memphis (38-20), FCS playoff contender South Dakota (38-24) and Western Michigan, the reigning MAC champion. Western Michigan famously opened the season with a controversial 13-12 loss at Michigan. 

Western Michigan head coach Lance Taylor called Saturday’s performance against Boise State “embarrassing” during his postgame press conference. 

“Sometimes it takes a good old ass whooping to really figure out who you are and who you aren’t, and where you need to go,” Taylor said. “We did not play to our standard today. We’ve got to coach better, and it starts with me. Based on the way we played and the way they kicked our ass, I would say we’ve got a couple of steps on the measuring stick.”

Boise State’s top competition for the Group of Six’s automatic bid to the CFP remains James Madison (4-0, 1-0 Sun Belt) and North Dakota State (4-0, 1-0 Mountain West). The Dukes are down to +350 to make the CFP while the Bison are +550.

James Madison, a CFP participant last year, has played the No. 123 strength of schedule nationally, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index. North Dakota State is even lower at No. 135 of 138 teams. 

Texas State leads the Pac-12 in strength of schedule at No. 26, followed by Boise State (No. 31), Utah State (No. 35) and Oregon State (No. 37). 

American favorite UTSA (3-1, 0-0) has the fourth-best CFP odds among Group of Six teams at +1000. UTSA owns a pair of Pac-12 victories over Colorado State (2-2, 0-0) and Texas State (2-2, 0-0). 

DraftKings lists CFP odds for four Pac-12 teams: Boise State, Fresno State (+5000), Texas State (+6000) and Oregon State (+10000).

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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