Boise State’s rivalry showdown with Fresno State could be CFP elimination game

Bulldogs to host Broncos on Saturday

Boise State's Rasean Jones. | Photo courtesy of Boise State Athletics

One week into conference play, the Pac-12 is down to three teams with genuine College Football Playoff aspirations.  

Two of those teams—rivals No. 23 Boise State and Fresno State—will face off on Saturday night in a de facto CFP elimination game. Kickoff between the Broncos (4-1, 1-0) and Bulldogs (4-1, 1-0) is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Mountain time in Fresno. 

Boise State, which is coming off a 37-18 home victory over Utah State (1-4, 0-1), has the 12th-best odds nationally to make the CFP at +140 in the latest update from DraftKings Sportsbook. Fresno State is back at +4000 while Oregon State (3-2, 1-0) sits at +6500. 

The Broncos’ top competition for the Group of Six’s automatic CFP bid remains James Madison (+400), North Dakota State (+425), New Mexico (+720) and UTSA (+1100). 

James Madison’s (5-0, 2-0 Sun Belt) strength of schedule ranks No. 132 out of 138 FBS teams, according to ESPN’s FPI. The Dukes will not play a top-70 FPI team this season while Boise State has already faced two—No. 9 Oregon, No. 57 Memphis—with upcoming matchups against No. 60 Oregon State and No. 63 Fresno State.

North Dakota State’s (5-0, 2-0 Mountain West) strength of schedule is even worse at No. 137, but the Bison do have a road game at FPI No. 39 New Mexico (4-1, 1-0) on Oct. 24. The Lobos rank 104th in strength of schedule despite a road loss to FPI No. 21 Oklahoma. 

UTSA (4-1, 1-0 American) has a pair of Pac-12 victories over middling Colorado State (2-3, 0-1) and Texas State (2-3, 0-1). Despite a signature win, UTSA’s strength of schedule all the way up at No. 47. 

Boise State has played the toughest schedule of the Pac-12’s top contenders at FPI No. 49, followed by Oregon State (No. 50) and Fresno State (No. 106). The Broncos will host the Beavers on Saturday, Nov. 14. 

In the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, Boise State is favored by 6.5 points in Saturday’s road showdown with Fresno State. The Broncos opened as 9.5-point favorites, and the spread was bet all the way down to -5.5 before bouncing back up. 

Oregon State is a massive 14.5-point home favorite over San Diego State (2-3, 1-0) on Saturday. 

The Pac-12’s other Week 6 game is a Friday night basement matchup between Washington State (1-4, 0-1) and Utah State. The Aggies are favored by 5.5 points in Logan.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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