What Boise State’s massive edge in ESPN SP+ rankings say about new Pac-12’s power dynamics

While FanDuel has already released conference championship betting odds for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, the Group of Six—which includes the new Pac-12—remains off the board as spring practice ramps up.

When FanDuel unveils its Pac-12 betting odds, Boise State is expected to be a prohibitive favorite in the reborn conference.

The Broncos, who finished 9-5 overall last year while capturing a third straight Mountain West championship, lapped the other seven Pac-12 teams in ESPN’s initial SP+ projections, which were unveiled last week.

Boise State landed at No. 39 in the SP+ projections. No other Group of Six team cracked the top 50.

UNLV (MWC) was the second-highest Group of Six team at No. 59, followed by No. 63 Navy (American), No. 68 New Mexico (MWC), No. 70 Memphis (American) and No. 71 San Diego State (Pac-12).

Here is where each Pac-12 team ranked in the SP+ projections.

39. Boise State (6.8 SP+)

71. San Diego State (-1.3)

78. Fresno State (-2.3)

85. Washington State (-5.3)

89. Texas State (-5.9)

91. Oregon State (-6.3)

97. Utah State (-7.7)

99. Colorado State (-8.3)

With every team inside the top 100 and Boise State’s outlier status, the Pac-12 rated well above the other Group of Six conferences in the SP+ projections.

Here is the SP+ rating for each conference.

1. SEC (14.5)

2. Big Ten (11.0)

3. Big 12 (7.4)

4. ACC (6.4)

5. Pac-12 (-3.7)

6. Mountain West (-8.2)

7. American (-8.2)

8. Sun Belt (-12.2)

9. Conference USA (-13.7)

10. MAC (-15.9)

“Excited for the Pac-12,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said earlier this month. “We’ve kind of been in prep for this for a while. Now, it’s here. We’ve got our schedule. The Mountain West was awesome for us. We had some amazing years in the Mountain West. But excited for what’s next, excited for the Pac-12.”

Before starting Pac-12 play, the Broncos must get through a difficult non-conference schedule that features road trips to Oregon (No. 2 in SP+) and reigning MAC champion Western Michigan (No. 94) and a home matchup with Memphis.

“Really good non-conference, then you roll into a Pac-12 with some new coaches that are going to do a really good job in some of the best environments,” Danielson said. “You’ve got a schedule that if you handle business, you have the report card to go play in the College Football Playoff.”

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