A Very Early Win/Loss Projection For Boston College Football in 2021

Let's dissect the schedule and give some projections on the upcoming season.
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Yesterday, the ACC released the 2021 conference schedule, which finalized the dates for Boston College's upcoming games. We learned that the Eagles will be kicking the season off at home against Colgate on September 4th, and have three home games in November. For a refresher on the schedule, here it is. 

Before we get into some week by week projections, please be warned. Teams change drastically from year to year. For instance, before 2020 Louisville would have been a team that would have had a very high win probability against the Eagles. But by the time the game arrived, BC was clearly the better team. Remember these projections are just a snapshot in time.

Game  1: Colgate Raiders

The annual FCS sacrifice will be featuring a team that many are not familiar with. But this spring you may get a chance to check them out as Colgate will be playing with the rest of the Patriot League in spring football. The Raiders last FBS team they played was Air Force in 2019, a game that they lost 48-7. Boston College should be able to tune up nicely to start the season Win probability: 99%

Game 2: At UMass Minutemen

2020 was not pretty for the Minutemen. After deciding to play after most teams had schedules set, UMass was only able to scrape together four games (Liberty, Georgia Southern, Marshall & Florida Atlantic). In those four games, they managed to score one total touchdown, and were shut out offensively three times. Now UMass players and fans are going to treat this game like their Super Bowl, and with it happening on campus, the environment will be very hostile, but be realistic, BC should be able to easily take care of business against the Minutemen. Win probability: 97%

Game 3: At Temple Owls

Another team that had a very tough 2020, the Owls finished the season 1-6. This offseason hasn't been particularly kind for Temple either as a seemingly endless parade of players have entered the transfer portal. 2021 certainly is shaping up to be a tough season for Rod Carey and his staff. Win Probability: 80%

Game 4: Missouri Tigers

The first SEC team to visit Alumni Stadium since 1987, Missouri is a team to keep an eye on. They finished third in the SEC East last year, with a respectable 5-5 record. Quarterback Connor Bazelak had an impressive freshman season throwing for over 2500 yards, and the Tigers can put up points, averaging 27 points per game against SEC opponents. Missouri is a team in good shape that seems to be projecting upwards, and could be one of the toughest games on BC's schedule. Win probability: 55%

Game 5: At Clemson Tigers

The third straight trip to Death Valley for the Eagles. Last year's game was a thriller, highlighted by some memorable plays by both teams. DJ Uiagalelei showed the world that he is ready to take over for Trevor Lawrence, and it's always important to remember that Clemson never rebuilds they just reload. Easily the toughest game on BC's schedule, they will have to do something that no team has done since 2016, win in Death Valley.  Win Probability: 10%

Game 6: NC State Wolfpack

If Missouri is the second toughest game on BC's schedule, NC State could be 2b. The Wolfpack played exceptionally well in 2020, finishing 8-4, and could battle the Eagles for second place in the ACC Atlantic. A healthy Devin Leary changes the face of their offense, one that may give the Eagles defense fits. Win Probability: 50%

Game 7: At Louisville Cardinals

Louisville is always a tricky team to project because you don't know what they are going to be year to year. Before last season Malik Cunningham looked to be an All ACC quarterback, and his stock plummeted during the season. Scott Satterfield is a good coach, and there is always talent in the program. Most likely a toss up game. BC probably is more talented, but being on the road will level this off.  Win probability 50%

Game 8: At Syracuse Orange

Syracuse's 2020 season was an unmitigated disaster. But they played Boston College well and it came down to the end of the game for the two rivals. Truth be told that was because Phil Jurkovec was playing with a separated shoulder but these two teams almost always battle. It has been two years since Dino Babers had his offense clicking, will 2021 be a breakthrough year for Tommy Devito? The Carrier Dome has been challenging in the past, but the Eagles have won two in a row there. Win probability 75%.

Game 9: Virginia Tech Hokies (Friday Night)

Last year was a horror show for Jeff Hafley and his squad as Hendon Hooker and Khalil Herbert shredded the Eagles defense. Fortunately for BC the pair have moved on. On top of that the program basically imploded after their game last year, with many wondering if Justin Fuente would lose his job. Lots of questions about the Hokies moving forward, but this could be a tough one for BC. Win Probability: 45%

Game 10: @Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Boston College shredded GT's defense last year putting up 48 points against the Yellow Jackets. But it's important to note that every year that Geoff Collins gets to turn his roster over from the triple option, the more dangerous his team becomes. It's a road game, which is a bit of a concern, and with a mobile quarterback, this could be a sneaky trap game for BC. However, I still believe the Eagles should be favored. Win probability: 60%

Game 11: Florida State Seminoles

Florida State playing in Boston in late November? That is going to be a tough one. The Seminoles are a tough team to read, because they were a hot mess in 2020, but as new head coach Mike Norvell gets his feet under him, will he be ready to right the ship? Win probability 65%

 Game 12: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Boston College and Wake did not play in 2020. The Demon Deacons went 4-5 last season with wins over UVA/VT teams that beat Boston College. Sam Hartman had a breakout year for the Deacons, but there are a lot of pieces leaving WF including Boogie Basham and Sage Surratt (who didn't play last season). This early, I would say this is a 50/50 game. Win Probability 50%

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