How Good is your Favorite Team's NCAA Tournament Resume?
Selection Sunday is here. College basketball fans everywhere are dusting off their “ESPN Bracket Challenge” apps. Teams on the NCAA tournament bubble groggily reach for an energy drink after a sleepless night pondering the unprecedented number of bid thieves in this year’s bracket, and whether or not they did enough to hear their name called this afternoon. We at Cougs Daily hope to give you an answer to that question in our latest Wacketology rankings.
Overview
For those who are new, Wacketology is a data-driven ranking of NCAA tournament resumes. Each team is given a point value for wins and losses in each NET quadrant. A team earns 4 points for a Q1 win, 3 for a Q2, 2 for a Q3, and 1 for a Q4. One point is then subtracted for each Q1 loss, 2 for a Q2 loss and so on. That point value is divided by a weighted average of the predictive and resume metrics used by the committee to give each team a Wacketology score. Scores are then sorted and given seed lines in descending order. These seeds are compared to Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology update to give us insight into which teams are over or under-seeded, and why your favorite team may be lower than you think.
What seed will BYU earn?
First, let’s discuss the team we cover. BYU falls one spot to 17th overall in our latest bracket update as Wisconsin inched ahead after their massive overtime win over projected 1-seed Purdue. Florida also creeped up the seed line and is now tied with the Cougars after their run to the SEC title game. Regardless, I expect BYU to earn a 5-seed when the bracket is revealed this afternoon based on both their Lunardi seed projection and their Wacketology score, giving BYU a solid chance to play in Salt Lake City during the first weekend.
BYU currently has wins over 7 teams in the tournament field, including wins over a Wacketology 1 seed, 3-seed, and 4-seed. The Cougars have a 7-6 record overall against projected tournament teams, including a 4-1 record against teams projected as a 6-seed or lower in Wacketology. Translation: This team is better prepared to make a deep tournament run than any BYU team before.
Where are other teams in the Big 12?
Iowa State and Texas Tech are both projected to be underseeded today based on their Wacketology scores. The top three 1-seeds are truly in a league of their own this season, but Iowa State’s blow out win over Houston and UNC’s loss to NC State in the ACC title game should be enough to push the Cyclones resume to the 1-seed line. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is a projected 6-seed, but our metrics suggest that Texas Tech’s resume is that of a 5-seed, with 6 Q1 wins and a Wacketology score of 34.9.
We project the Big 12 to have 9 teams in the field and 6 of the top 19 overall seeds, two more than the SEC and three more than the Big Ten and Big East. In short, the Big 12 is an absolute juggernaut.
Bubble
The above table is a side-by-side resume comparison for each team on Lunardi’s bubble. Oklahoma and TCU find themselves on the right side of bubble cutline in our latest update, giving the Big 12 9 tournament-worthy teams. Unfortunately, teams like Indiana State, Virginia, and Pitt each have tournament-worthy Wacketology scores, but find themselves on the outside of Lunardi’s bracket thanks to bid stealers out of the ACC, AAC, and Pac-12 conferences.
