Wacketology: BYU a Lock to Play in Salt Lake City?
THIS IS MARCH. BYU wrapped up the regular season with a win over Oklahoma State and secured themselves a 5-seed in the Big 12 tournament. Naturally, it’s time for a post season update to our Wacketology rankings before high major conference tournament play begins.
First off, if you are new to Wacketology, we have provided an explanation here. I made a few updates to our ranking to include the 4 additional metrics the selection committee uses in their seeding process: BPI, KenPom, KPI, and SOR. BPI and KenPom are similar to NET in that they are predictive in nature. SOR and KPI are resume based metrics that rank teams based on what that they have accomplished so far. The predictive and resume metrics have both been averaged with NET to give us our new metrics adjustment that is assigned to our point total to give us our Wacketology score. Without further ado, we present Wacketology for March 11.
Where is BYU now?
BYU holds strong as the final 4 seed and 16th team overall in our bracket. Kansas State’s win over Iowa State pushed the Wildcats into the top 75 which moved BYU’s win and loss into Q2 and Q1 respectively. Wyoming also moved up into the top 160 of NET, moving BYU’s win back in December from Q4 to Q3. These bumps are small but significant for BYU’s resume, especially when our last 4 seed and top 6 seed are separated by just 1.2 points.
What is BYU’s worst-case scenario?
BYU’s worst-case scenario depends on the outcome of UCF vs Oklahoma State on Tuesday night. If Oklahoma State wins and then upsets BYU, it would be BYU’s first Q3 loss and would put BYU in jeopardy of falling to a 6-seed. If UCF wins and beats BYU the following day, it would be a Q2 loss that shouldn’t drop BYU that far unless a team ranked behind them makes a run in their respective conference tournament.
What is BYU’s best-case scenario?
Assuming BYU wins their first round matchup, BYU will face 4-seed Texas Tech in what will be a Q1 game for both schools. If BYU wins, BYU will likely solidify themselves as a 4-seed on selection Sunday with a Wacketology score of 40.1. BYU could climb as high as a 3-seed if they win the Big 12 tournament title.
What is the most likely scenario?
Conservatively, BYU should at least win one game in the Big 12 tournament. The Cougars will be a sizable favorite against both Oklahoma State and UCF, and I find it reasonable to expect a win. Beating Texas Tech will be a more formidable challenge, but KenPom still has BYU as a 3-point favorite on a neutral floor. Win and BYU should earn a 4-seed. Lose, and BYU remains a 5-seed. Either way, BYU should be playing in Salt Lake during the first weekend.
Other bracket hot takes
Yesterdays matchup between Drake and Indiana State is one of the best basketball games I’ve seen in years. Both teams should make the tournament, and if they do, watch out for Indiana State. The Sycamores are a projected 11-seed by Joe Lunardi, but Wacketology suggests they have the resume of a 6-seed. Don’t be surprised if Indiana State makes some noise if they are selected. Other names to watch out for as potential bracket busters include Utah State and Colorado, who both have Wacketology scores that place them multiple seeds higher than their Lunardi projection. Meanwhile SDSU, Kentucky, Clemson, Michigan State and Boise State earned Wacketology scores at least two seeds lower than their Lunardi projection.
