BYU’s Projected Win Total Rises After Week 0 Stumbles by Two Opponents

Week zero of the college football season is in the rearview mirror. Only two BYU opponents played in week zero: Utah Tech and TCU. Both the Horned Frogs and the Trailblazers struggled in week zero and, as a result, ESPN FPI increased BYU's projected win total for the 2026 season.

TCU took on North Carolina in Dublin, Ireland. The Horned Frogs were very sloppy in an ugly 10-15 loss. Harvard transfer and TCU quarterback Jayden Craig struggled in his first FBS game. The wet and rainy conditions certainly didn't help, but some of TCU's struggles extended beyond wet conditions. Penalties and missed defensive assignements were a theme throughout.

Utah Tech took on FCS power Montana State and got blown out. Montana State shut out Utah Tech in a 54-0 win.

FPI Updates Prediction for BYU's 2026 Schedule

According to FPI, TCU was expected to be the second most difficult opponent for BYU in conference play behind only Utah. That's no longer the case after week zero. FPI increased BYU's odds of winning that game from 65% to 69%. UCF is now the second most difficult game on BYU's conference slate. The Cougars have a 68% chance of defeating the Knights, per FPI. BYU's projected win total for the regular season has increased to 8.9-3.1

Below are the game-by-game predictions after week zero.

Utah Tech: 99.0%
Arizona: 73.8%
Colorado State: 94.7%
TCU: 64.9%
Iowa State: 89.0%
Notre Dame: 24.0%
UCF: 67.7%
ASU: 78.9%
Utah: 58.7%
Baylor: 76.4%
Kansas: 71.9%
Cincinnati: 81.7%

Odds of a Special Season

Another double-digit season would likely put BYU in the Big 12 championship game once again. While the goal for BYU is to win the Big 12 in 2026 instead of falling short in the championship game, it all starts by making it back to Arlington.

Since TCU was one of the more difficult games on BYU's schedule, BYU's chances of a special season have increased. There is now a 1 in 3 chance that BYU wins 10 games or more, per FPI.

6 wins or more - 99.0%
7 wins or more - 95.1%
8 wins or more - 83.9%
9 wins or more - 61.7%
10 wins or more - 33.3%
11 wins or more - 10.8%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.4%

FPI Rankings

TCU was in the top third of Big 12 teams in the FPI rankings before week zero. After week zero, the Horned Frogs are stuck in the middle of the pack. There is a logjam of 8 Big 12 teams between 34 and 46. BYU remains the second best team in the Big 12 per FPI and top 20 nationally heading into the season.

Texas Tech - 10
BYU - 20
Utah - 31
Arizona - 34
Houston - 35
Baylor - 37
Kansas State - 41
TCU - 43
Arizona State - 44
Colorado - 45
Cincinnati - 46
Oklahoma State - 53
Kansas - 54
UCF - 56
West Virginia - 64
Iowa State - 72

Conference Title Hopes

BYU's conference title odds increased, albeit minimally, after TCU's struggles against North Carolina. BYU's conference title chances went from 16.5% to 16.8%. FPI projects it is most likely that either Tech or BYU will win the league. FPI gives those two teams a combined 63% chance to win the league and the remaining 14 teams have a 37% chance to win the conference.

Texas Tech - 45.7%
BYU - 16.8%
Utah - 6.0%
Arizona - 4.7%
Houston - 4.1%
TCU - 3.6%
Baylor - 3.4%
Kansas State - 2.9%
Colorado - 2.4%
Arizona State - 2.1%
Cincinnati - 2.1%
Oklahoma State - 2.0%
Kansas - 1.6%
UCF - 1.5%
West Virginia - 0.7%
Iowa State - 0.5%

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU's College Football Playoff chances remained essentially flat after week zero. Of note, TCU went from the 6th best odds to make the CFP (among Big 12 schools) to 14th in the league. The margins to make the playoff as a Big 12 team are slim, and the Horned Frogs really damaged their chances to make the playoff.

Texas Tech - 57.4%
BYU - 25.7%
Utah - 11.5%
Arizona - 8.2%
Houston - 8.0%
Baylor - 6.6%
Kansas State - 6.0%
Colorado - 4.4%
Cincinnati - 4.1%
ASU - 4.0%
Oklahoma State - 3.4%
UCF - 2.9%
Kansas - 2.8%
TCU - 2.7%
West Virginia - 1.5%
Iowa State - 1.1%

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