FPI Predicts BYU vs Texas Tech in Big 12 Title Game, Updates BYU's CFP Odds

BYU WR Jojo Phillips against UCF | BYU Photo

For the first time, BYU is headed to the Big 12 championship game. The Cougars will get a rematch against no. 5 Texas Tech after suffering a blowout loss at Texas Tech earlier this month. If BYU wins, they will be in the College Football Playoff. If BYU loses, their playoff fate will be in the hands of the College Football Playoff committee. History suggests the committee will do BYU zero favors (and FPI is starting to agree). Therefore, BYU is likely facing a scenario where they must win to be in.

FPI gives BYU a 33.4% chance to beat Texas Tech in Arlington. In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. BYU finished the season 11-1.

FPI also updated the Cougars' conference title odds.

FPI Rankings

BYU stayed at no. 15 the FPI rankings after a win over UCF. Texas Tech moved into the top five.

BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams in the top 25 of FPI and all three are in the top 15.

• Texas Tech - 5
• Utah - 9
• BYU - 15
• Arizona - 27
• TCU - 34
• Iowa State - 35
• Kansas State - 39
• Arizona State - 43
• Cincinnati - 45
• Kansas - 50
• Houston - 54
• Baylor - 58
• UCF - 69
• Colorado - 78
• WVU - 82
• Oklahoma State - 113

There are six Big 12 teams in the FPI top 35 and BYU is one of them. The Cougars played the other five teams in the top 35 and went 4-1 in those five games.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 35.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI - that is down from last week. Unfortunately for BYU, they didn't get any help this weekend. If the playoff ended today, they would probably be the first team out of the College Football Playoff bracket.

BYU has the second best odds in the conference to make it to the CFP. If the Big 12 is going to get two teams into the playoffs, it will need BYU to beat Texas Tech. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 98.2%
• BYU - 35.3%
• Utah - 1.7%

In other words, FPI gives BYU a 1.9% chance to make the playoff as an at-large team.

Utah's College Football Playoff hopes dropped off a cliff the last two weeks, going from 38% to 2%.