The early signing period is two weeks away and recruiting rankings are always a hot topic on signing day. BYU's 2021 recruiting class will be smaller than normal which has a negative impact on recruiting rankings. Today, let's take a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for BYU in the 2021 recruiting rankings.
For these scenarios, we'll assume that BYU signs ~17 players as part of the 2021 recruiting class.
First, let's calculate the scenario where BYU lands their top targets. BYU already has commitments from players like Raider Damuni, Logan Fano, Bentley Redden, Elia Migao and Enoka Migao. The Cougars are still targeting highly-rated prospects like Jaxson Dart, John Henry Daley, Dylan Rollins, and a few others. BYU has been the favorite to land John Henry Daley for months and they are gaining momentum with Jaxson Dart. Adding a handful of these players would create a very solid recruiting class. BYU's best-case recruiting class would be ranked approximately 63rd in the 247 composite recruiting rankings.
There's another scenario where BYU could land another player or two and make it into the mid 50's in the recruiting rankings. If that becomes a more plausible over the next week, I will include those players in the best-case scenario. For now, our best-case scenario will include players like Jaxson Dart, John Henry Daley, and Dylan Rollins.
A recruiting class in the mid 60's wouldn't make national headlines but it would be worth celebrating for a few reasons:
- The average star rating of this recruiting class would be the highest since 2010.
- BYU would jump 18 spots in the recruiting rankings (compared to 2020) despite signing 12 fewer players.
- BYU would bite the scholarship bullet that they've been pushing off for a few years.
This scenario help us understand the ceiling of BYU's small recruiting class. It's also worth noting that new targets could emerge before signing day if BYU continues to win and receive national recognition.
There are a few scenarios where BYU brings in some great players but still drops in the recruiting rankings in 2021. In fact, the size of BYU's recruiting class opens the door to the lowest recruiting class since class rankings started in 2001. However, Jasen Ah You and Jack Damuni hope to improve BYU's recruiting rankings and that took a major step in the right direction when they landed Raider Damuni and Logan Fano last weekend. Even with Fano and Damuni on board, they are facing an uphill battle in their first recruiting cycle.
For example, let's say BYU lands John Henry Daley but misses on the rest on the guys listed above. If BYU misses on those guys and fills the open spots with players that match historical averages (average rating around .82 247 composite rating), BYU's recruiting class could drop as low as 88th in the country.
There are a few players on BYU's big board that could really move the needle in terms of recruiting rankings. For the first time this year, I think the best-case scenario is more likely than the worst-case scenario. If I had to make a guess, I would guess BYU will add at least one more highly-rated prospect to the 2021 class. I think BYU could walk away with some very solid players in this class and a recruiting ranking in the 70's or better. With such a small class, the average rating of the class is probably a better measure of success than class ranking. From that perspective, this is going to be a very good class for BYU.
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