ESPN FPI made a prediction for BYU-Coastal Carolina following Thursday's news that BYU would replace Liberty and play Coastal Carolina on Saturday. ESPN FPI gives BYU a 67% chance to beat the Chanticleers on the road. ESPN also updated BYU's profile in the College Football Power Index following the schedule change. Every college football season, ESPN updates a College Football Power Index that ranks teams in various categories. Here is BYU's profile heading into Saturday's game against Coastal Carolina:
Note: The definitions of these metrics come from ESPN's CFB Power Index page.
Definition: Expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.
BYU: 15.8 meaning BYU would beat an average opponent by 15.8 points on a neutral field. 15.8 puts BYU in the top-15 of college football - ESPN FPI ranks BYU at #11.
Projected Win/Loss Record
Definition: Projected overall W-L accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections.
BYU: 10.6-0.4. BYU is expected to go 11-0 or 10-1 according to ESPN FPI's latest projections. Those numbers are subject to change throughout the season, especially if BYU adds another game or two to the schedule.
Win Out %
Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won all remaining scheduled games.
BYU: 59.1%. BYU has an 59.1% chance to go undefeated against their current schedule. They have a 67% chance to beat Coastal Carolina and 88% chance to beat San Diego State.
6 Wins %
Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won at least six games.
BYU: 100.0%. BYU has already surpassed six games this season.
Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff according to the playoff predictor.
BYU: 28.0%. This number increased when BYU added Coastal Carolina to the schedule giving them an opportunity to beat a top 25 team. BYU ranks #6 in the country in this category. Only Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame are more likely to make the playoff according to ESPN FPI.
Make National Championship %
Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff championship game.
BYU: 6.0% When was the last time BYU had a non-zero chance of playing in the national championship?
Win National Championship %
Definition: Chances of winning the CFB Playoff championship game.
BYU: 1.5%. In the words of Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance?"