Updated: ESPN FPI Predictions for the 2020 BYU Football Season
ESPN FPI was a tool created in 2013 to "Measure team strenth and project performance going forward." Today, let's look at the ESPN FPI predictions for BYU's 2020 schedule.
It's important to note that ESPN FPI is less accurate at the start of the season. As the season goes on, the model is able to implement same-year data and make more accurate projections. To really understand these numbers, you need to understand how ESPN FPI is calculated - I've included the definition at the bottom of this article.
ESPN has updated the previous FPI projections BYU's eight official games.
Opponent: BYU's chances to win according to ESPN FPI
@ Navy: 32.1% (Upgraded from 27.7%)
@ Army: 52.1%
Troy: 72.2% (Downgraded from 74.5%)
UTSA: 88.7%
Houston: 37.7% (Downgraded from 46.4%)
Texas State: 91.7%
Western Kentucky: 62.2%
North Alabama: 99.2%
First and foremost, let's talk about Navy. Originally, I was surprised to see ESPN FPI give BYU only a 28% chance to win. Now, that number has increased to 32%. Navy had an outstanding 2019 season, but they lose their QB who ran for 2,000+ yards last year. Navy will turn to Dalen Morris who has only run for 20 total yards in his career at Navy. I think this game could go either way, but I give BYU better than a 32% chance to win.
Most notably, ESPN downgraded BYU's chances to beat Houston from 46% to 38%. Houston will probably be an improved team in 2020 after going 4-8 last season.
The projection for Troy seems reasonable. The Trojans will have to travel across the country and they lose a lot of production from last season. I like BYU's chances in this game.
ESPN FPI thinks BYU-Army could go either way - I tend to agree.
I will update this article as ESPN updates their FPI projections to match BYU's ever-changing schedule.
For those that aren't familiar with FPI, here's a definition from ESPN's website:
"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.
In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines."