Cal Basketball Preview: 10 Reasons Not to Feel Optimistic About 2019-20 Season
Cal opens its season under new coach Mark Fox on Tuesday at home against Pepperdine, but Bears fans should temper their optimism.
My job is to see the glass half-empty and note why Cal fans should limit their expectations of what the Bears can accomplish in Fox’s first season as he begins to rebuild the program.
(Click here for 10 reasons to feel optimistic about this season.)
Here are 10 reasons tough times will remain in 2019-2020 for the Bears after winning just eight games each of the past two seasons under Wyking Jones:
--Fox will not turn the program around in one year, and probably not in two. When Fox took over a Georgia program that had finished 3-13 in the SEC the previous season, the Bulldogs went 14-17 overall and 5-11 in the conference in their first season under Fox. And that was with a lot of players returning from the prior season. Georgia got to the NCAA Tournament in Fox’s second season but had two more losing seasons after that.
--The Bears’ five scholarship freshmen will not have a major impact this season. You must remember Fox got a late start in recruiting, and though he retained the commitment of Joel Brown and D.J. Thorpe, he had to pursue other players who had not signed elsewhere. Center Lars Thiemann is the only freshman expected to start, and guard Brown may be the only other freshman who will get extended playing time. Thorpe will play some, but Kuany Kuany’s availability is in question because of an injury and Dimitrios Klonaras may not be ready for major minutes.
--Cal may very well finish last again this season. The Bears were picked to finish 12th in the preseason coaches poll, and they may have less talent than they had a year ago when they went 3-15 in the Pac-12.
--The Bears may not have the point guard needed for success in the Pac-12. Paris Austin is a mature leader and freshman Joel Brown has shown potential at the point, but these days teams need standouts at that critical position.
--The three players who would have been Cal’s best players this season have transferred elsewhere. Changing coaches includes a transition period. Justice Sueing, Cal’s leading scorer and rebounder last season, transferred to Ohio State; Darius McNeill, who averaged 11.0 points, transferred to SMU, and 7-foot-4 Connor Vanover, who demonstrated loads of potential late in the season, transferred to Arkansas.
--Lars Thiemann is not like Connor Vanover. Vanover was distinctive in the fact that he was a 7-footer who could shoot three-pointers. The fact that Thiemann is 7 feet tall is the only similarity to Vanover. Thiemann is stronger and more polished as an inside player than Vanover was, but Thiemann is not going to take three-pointers, especially at the new, longer distance.
---Kareem South will help, but is not a savior. South averaged 13.8 points at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and that was against Southland Conference competition. It will be more difficult to reach that figure against Pac-12 teams.
--No Cal player will be named to the all-Pac-12 team. It takes stars to win conference games, and Matt Bradley and South are the closest things the Bears have to stars.
--Don’t expect Cal to run up and down the floor and score a lot of points. Fox is a defensive-minded coach and has been talking about defense at every opportunity. The Bears certainly need to improve their defense from last year, when that was a major weakness, but they may not score enough points to win a lot of games.
--The Bears may look confused at times early in the season. Fox is putting in a completely new system, and it will take time for it to take hold. The team’s inexperience as well as the implementation of a new infrastructure may lead to some blowout losses early on.
(Click here for a preview of Cal's opening game against Pepperdine.)
