Cal Still Has a Chance to Get into Women's NCAA Tournament
Cal still has a shot to make the women’s NCAA basketball tournament.
If the selections for the 68-team field were made today, February 15, the Bears (15-10) would not be in. But they are close, according to the February 15 ESPN Bracketology projections, and Cal’s remaining schedule seems to give them a legitimate shot at making the NCAA field for the first time since 2019 and for the first time under head coach Charmin Smith.
Don’t be fooled by Bears’ seemingly mediocre 5-8 conference record, which leaves them in seventh place, three games behind sixth-place Utah. The Pac-12 is a highly respected conference in women’s basketball, and the six teams ahead of Cal in the standings are all locks to make the NCAA Tournament. In fact, all six are among the top five seeds in this week’s NCAA tournament projection by ESPN’s Charlie Crème. (Another site, College Sports Madness, gives those six Pac-12 teams a seeding of sixth or better. Cal is not in the field in that projection.)
However, here are the critical factors:
ESPN’s Crème has a seventh Pac-12 in the field, Washington State, and he has the Cougars in with some room to spare as a No. 10 seed. You may recall that Cal beat Washington State and Washington on the road last weekend, completing a season sweep of both schools and leaving Washington State behind Cal in the Pac-12 standings.
Because of that sweep Cal is back in the NCAA tournament picture, though just on the outside at the moment. Crème does not include Cal in his group of “First Four Out,” but does have the Golden Bears among the “Next Four Out.” That puts Cal in a group of eight schools that can play their way into the Big Dance with a strong finish to the regular season.
And Cal’s remaining schedule suggests a strong finish is possible.
The Bears’ next game is against Stanford on the Cardinal’s home floor on Friday. Cal’s chances of beating Stanford are close to zero, especially at Maples Pavilion, but if the Bears stay somewhat close it might help.
Then the Bears’ next three games are against teams Cal is very capable of beating – Arizona and Arizona State at home and Oregon on the road. All three are behind Cal in the standings and are games the Bears should win.
Cal finishes its regular-season schedule with a road game against 11th-ranked Oregon State, and Cal will be a significant underdog in that one. But staying close against the Beavers may put of a positive spin on the Bears record.
The Bears might also need to win a game in the Pac-12 tournament to have a chance of making the 68-team field, and that will be difficult since Cal would probably have to face one of the conference's powerhouse teams right off the bat. Again staying close could be a factor.
You see, margin of victory (or loss) is a factor in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings, which is one of the factors the selection committee considers when choosing the at-large teams for the NCAA tournament.
Cal’s unappealing No. 62 spot in the NET rankings as of Wednesday is the main reason Cal is outside the field of 68 at the moment while Washington State, with a No. 25 NET ranking, is in despite the Bears higher place in the conference standings and their two wins over the Cougars.
You can check out how the NET is calculated here:
Of course, Cal could earn an automatic berth in the NCAA tournament by winning the conference tournament, which begins on March 6 in Las Vegas. But with five Pac-12 schools ranked among the top 11 in this week’s AP poll, that would require several major upsets.
Cal needs to win the three games against Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon and avoid blowout losses to Stanford and Oregon State to have its best chance to reach the NCAA tournament. If Cal could pull off a major upset and beat either Stanford or Oregon State, that NCAA berth would seem likely.
Cover photo of Kemery Martin by Cal Athletics
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