Calculating Cal’s NCAA Tournament Chances Is Confusing

Do you know what WAB is and how it affects Cal’s chances of getting into the NCAA tournament?

Do you know why the status of two North Carolina players for a Saturday game 2,500 miles away might influence Cal’s postseason chances?

Is it possible that Cal’s chances for an NCAA tournament berth would be enhanced if the Bears (18-8) lose to Stanford on Saturday afternoon before what is expected to be a large crowd at Haas Pavilion?

The answer the third question is simple and obvious: No, it does not benefit Cal to lose to Stanford, but it does initiate debate if you consider all the ramifications of a Bears win or loss in that game, as we will attempt to demonstrate later.

The answer to the other two questions will be addressed here, along with a laundry list of other issues about Cal's NCAA tournament status.

Aristotle never played hoops in his backyard, but he came up with a phrase appropriate for Cal’s NCAA tournament chances: “The more you know, the more you know you don't know.”

ESPN’s Bracketology posted Friday puts Cal as the top team in the Next Four Out category, which means the Bears would have to pass at least five bubble teams to get into March Madness. CBS Sports’ NCAA projections on Friday place Cal in the First Four Out, putting the Bears one step closer to a berth than ESPN does.

The consensus of more than 100 sites that post NCAA tournament projections is that Cal is close, but would not make the 68-team field if the decision of the 12-member selection committee were made today.

Let’s consider the most important metrics the committee will consider and where Cal ranks in them as of Friday morning:

NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) – 62 (low for a team to get an at-large berth)

SOR (Strength of Record) – 52 (typical for a team in the middle of the bubble)

KPI (Kevin Pauga Index) – 51 (again typical for a team in the middle of the bubble)

Computer (Average of KenPom, Torvik, ESPN BPI) – 52 (That doesn’t sound bad until you see that the Bears’ chances of getting an at-large berth are just 15 percent based on this metric. Cheer up, two days ago, it was just 13 percent.)

Quard 1 Record (home record against teams in the top 30 of the NET, neutral-court record against teams in the top 50, road record against teams in the top 75) 4-5 (Cal's four Quad 1 wins – against North Carolina, UCLA, Miami and Stanford -- are a high number and represent Cal’s best argument for NCAA tournament inclusion – assuming the Bears still have four Quad 1 wins when the selections are made.)

Now we come to WAB or Wins Above Bubble, which a number of sites, including CBS Sports, suggest may be the most important measure when it comes to the selection committee’s final few choices of at-large teams.

Basically, WAB calculates whether a team has more or fewer wins than a typical bubble team if they all played the same schedule.

And you won’t believe where Cal ranks in WAB:

Fifty-two teams have their WAB number in green, which means they have a positive – or favorable – WAB and a good chance to be selected as at-large teams. There are 305 Division I teams that have a red or negative WAB, which does not bode well for NCAA Tournament inclusion. Two teams – McNeese and TCU – have yellow WABs that are just barely negative, putting their status in virtual limbo.

Finally there is one team in gray, suggesting its +0.03 WAB score is so close to zero that it is really neither positive nor negative.

That one team is Cal.

Talk about your gray area.

There is one other selection criterion that is sometimes ignored by Bracketologists: committee members’ subjective opinion. It could come down to what they think of a team based on films of their games.

It’s clear Cal needs to finish the season with a bunch of wins. But how many?

Cal fans are spewing out the number of wins they believe the Bears need in their final five games plus the ACC tournament to get into March Madness for the first time since 2016.

For some reason the number 23 is being thrown around as the number of wins Cal needs to get it.

That’s just a guess.

It seems reasonable that 23 wins would do the trick, but just how many victories will be enough depends on dozens of results elsewhere in the country.

So Cal fans should root for the following teams to lose their games on Saturday:

Virginia Tech, Georgia, Missouri, USC, SMU, San Diego State, Seton Hall, New Mexico, Texas A&M, Central Florida, Santa Clara, Saint Mary’s and Auburn.

Cal fans should probably hope UCLA loses to Illinois, because the Bruins are one of the bubble teams Cal needs to surpass to get in. But the Bruins have a NET ranking of 41, and if they drop below 50, the Bears’ neutral-court win over UCLA will no longer count as a Quad 1 win.

The Bears also hope North Carolina wins its game at Syracuse even though UNC freshman star Caleb Wilson is unlikely to play and the Tar Heels’ second-best player Henri Veesaar is questionable. If North Carolina loses, its current NET ranking of 28 is likely to drop out of the top 30, and Cal’s home victory over North Carolina would no longer be considered a Quad 1 win.

Similar logic applies if Cal beats Stanford on Saturday. The Cardinal might drop from its current NET ranking of 71 out of the top 75, and that would prevent the Bears’ road win over the Cardinal last month counting as a Quad 1 win.

Clearly Cal’s NCAA tournament chances benefit more from a Cal win than keeping a Quad I victory that might result from a loss to the Cardinal, but it speaks to conflicting factors affecting a team’s bubble status.

A better example is UCLA’s game against Illinois on Saturday. UCLA is one of the teams just ahead of Cal on the bubble, so a Bruins loss would help Cal in that regard. However UCLA is No. 41 in the NET rankings and a few more losses would drop the Bruins out of the top 50, preventing Cal from getting a Quad 1 win from its neutral-court victory over the Bruins in San Francisco.

So, Cal could go from the four Quad 1 wins it has today to one Quad 1 win in a few days.

When conference tournaments begin in a few weeks, you'll hear the term "bracket busters," which refers to surprise winners of conference tournaments who get an automatic NCAA tournament berth but would not have received an at-large berth. Assuming other teams in that conference will get at-large berths, those surprise conference tournament champions will knock off one team from another conference that would have received an at-large berth.

We'll get to that when the ACC tournament starts.

There are so many factors affecting a bubble team like Cal that coaches demand that their players focus only on the game at hand.

If you win enough games, they’ll say, you’ll get into the NCAA tournament. . . . probably.