Projecting the Men’s Basketball Top 16 Seeds in the NCAA Tournament

Ahead of the selection committee’s reveal of its current top seeds, Sports Illustrated maps out what to expect.

UConn head coach Dan Hurley and the Huskies could be in danger of sliding off the one-seed line. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

The NCAA selection committee is meeting in Indianapolis this week as it begins preparations for Selection Sunday. On Saturday the committee will reveal a preview of the current top 16 teams to show where they stand as the season hits the home stretch. The top 16 reveal is always a valuable data point in understanding how the committee views certain teams as well as some big-picture takeaways on what this year’s committee might value most. 

Here’s how Sports Illustrated projects the top 16 will look Saturday afternoon. 

1. Michigan (25–1)
2. Duke (24–2)
3. Arizona (24–2)
4. Houston (23–3)
5. Iowa State (23–3)
6. Illinois (22–5)
7. UConn (24–3)
8. Purdue (21–5)
9. Kansas (20–6)
10. Florida (20–6)
11. Nebraska (22–4)
12. Michigan State (21–5)
13. Gonzaga (26–2)
14. Alabama (19–7)
15. Texas Tech (19–7)
16. Virginia  (23–3)

Also considered: Arkansas (19–7), St. John’s (21–5), Louisville (19–7) and Tennessee (19–7).

The top three teams seem fairly set in their ranking heading into Saturday. It’d be a surprise to see any deviation from that projected order, though it’s possible the committee could value Arizona’s four elite wins away from home and keep the Wildcats above Duke at No. 2. 

Where things get interesting is the last No. 1 seed slot. UConn had been positioned there in SI’s Bracket Watch prior to the Huskies’ home loss to Creighton on Wednesday. That loss drops them and is particularly damaging because UConn’s conference schedule is the easiest of any serious No. 1 seed contender. Houston and Iowa State figure to compete for that last top seed; the Cougars win out on metrics, though the Cyclones have a head-to-head win over Houston from earlier this week. 

Two teams on the projected No. 4 seed line have significant injuries that committee chair Keith Gill, the Sun Belt commissioner, may address Saturday. Gonzaga star big man Braden Huff has been sidelined since early January with a knee injury and his status for the NCAA tournament is unknown. Meanwhile, Texas Tech will have to soldier on without potential All-American JT Toppin, who tore his ACL earlier this week against Arizona State. How Tech’s seeding is impacted by Toppin’s injury will depend on just how much worse the Red Raiders look over the next month leading up to Selection Sunday.

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