Cal Still Sitting on NCAA Tournament Bubble

By the time Cal (18-8, 6-7 ACC) hosts Stanford (16-10, 5-8) on Saturday, the Bears’ chances of earning an NCAA tournament berth may be different than they are today, Tuesday, February 17.

Results of games all over the country this week may improve or worsen the Bears’ chances just a little bit. But just a little bit could mean the difference between Cal making the NCAA tournament and playing in the NIT because the Bears are sitting on the edge.

Four respected sites posted NCAA tournament projections Tuesday, and although none of those sites has Cal in the 68-team field, two of them, including the most influential one, claim that Cal is right on the cusp of earning a berth.

Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology at ESPN seems to be the most valued projection, and Lunardi has Cal among his “First Four Out,” along with Missouri, Ohio State and New Mexico. That means results favorable to Cal over the next several days could push the Bears into the “Last Four In” category, currently occupied by UCLA, TCU, Santa Clara and San Diego State.

The USA Today projections, produced by Erick Smith, Paul Myerberg and Eddie Timanu, also put Cal barely out of the field, placing Cal in their “First Four Out” with New Mexico, Missouri and Santa Clara. That is similar to ESPN, as are USA Today’s “Last Four In” category of Georgia, Ohio State, UCLA and TCU.

CBS Sports’ projections are not as favorable for Cal, which is not listed among the “First Four Out,” where Santa Clara, New Mexico, VCU and Ohio State reside.

Andy Katz’s projections on NCAA.com have eight ACC teams in the tournament, but Cal is not one of them, nor are the Bears one of Katz’s “First Four Out.” Missouri, New Mexico, VCU and Santa Clara are his four teams just outside the field.

College Football News, which reports a lot on college basketball, puts Cal in the category of a "True Bubble Team," along with TCU, Seton Hall and South Florida.

A number of bubble teams play games Tuesday njght, including TCU, VCU, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, New Mexico, Georgia and San Diego State, So Cal's NCAA tournament status could change on Wednesday without playing a game.

Cal’s has a NET ranking of 61 as of Tuesday morning, which is a little low for NCAA tournament consideration, but it has four Quad 1 wins, which are the Bears’ best argument for inclusion.

But some of those Quad 1 wins could disappear by the end of the season depending on how North Carolina, UCLA and Stanford do the rest of the season. (The Bears’ Quad 1 road win over Miami seems secure.) It gets confusing with all the moving parts, which will be addressed later this week.

The bottom line for now is that Cal is still very much in the discussion to get its first NCAA tournament berth in 10 years. But the Bears need to do well over their final five games against Stanford, SMU (17-8), Pitt (9-17), Georgia Tech (11-15) and Wake Forest (13-12) as well as the ACC tournament.

Cal has little room for error, but it's impossible to say how many more wins the Bears need to get in.

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